Brokerages Slash HPCL Targets: HSBC Cuts to ₹360, Kotak to ₹235 Amid Oil Concerns
Multiple brokerages have taken bearish stances on Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited, with HSBC downgrading to Hold and cutting target price 42% to ₹360, while Kotak Institutional Equities reiterates Sell with target reduced 30% to ₹235. Both cite elevated crude oil prices, geopolitical risks, and OMCs' inability to pass through higher costs due to pricing constraints.

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Hindustan petroleum Corporation Limited faces mounting pressure from multiple brokerages as analysts slash target prices and maintain cautious ratings amid rising crude oil prices and sector-wide challenges.
Multiple Brokerage Downgrades
Two major investment firms have taken bearish stances on Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited. HSBC has downgraded the stock to Hold from its previous rating, while Kotak Institutional Equities has reiterated its Sell recommendation with a significantly reduced target price.
| Brokerage Actions: | HSBC | Kotak Institutional Equities |
|---|---|---|
| Rating: | Hold (Downgraded) | Sell (Reiterated) |
| Target Price: | ₹360 | ₹235 |
| Previous Target: | ₹620 | ₹335 |
| Price Cut: | 42% reduction | 30% reduction |
Kotak's Revised Oil Assumptions
Kotak Institutional Equities has updated its oil price forecasts, incorporating higher assumptions that significantly impact OMC valuations. The brokerage now expects crude oil prices at $85 per barrel for FY27 and $75 per barrel for FY28, reflecting concerns over sustained elevated energy costs.
Key Risk Factors Identified
Kotak highlights several critical challenges facing the oil marketing sector:
- Geopolitical Risks: West Asia and Strait of Hormuz tensions creating supply uncertainties
- Pricing Constraints: Lack of retail pricing freedom forcing OMCs to absorb higher costs
- Cost Pressures: Rising crude, freight, and insurance expenses impacting margins
- Supply Issues: LPG shortages limiting companies' ability to implement fuel price hikes
- Margin Erosion: Weakening earnings destroying previously built marketing margin buffers
Sector-Wide Challenges
Both brokerages cite elevated crude oil prices as a fundamental concern for Oil Marketing Companies. HSBC points to crude trading around $75 per barrel, while Kotak's higher assumptions suggest continued pressure on the sector. The higher crude environment creates multiple headwinds including marketing losses, sharp earnings cuts, and multiple compression affecting valuations.
Market Outlook
The significant target price reductions from both HSBC (42% cut) and Kotak (30% cut) reflect the challenging operating environment for oil marketing companies. The lack of retail pricing freedom particularly constrains companies' ability to pass through higher input costs to consumers, forcing them to absorb margin pressure during periods of elevated crude oil prices.
Historical Stock Returns for Hindustan Petroleum
| 1 Day | 5 Days | 1 Month | 6 Months | 1 Year | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.85% | -5.23% | -25.70% | -24.95% | -9.87% | +105.81% |


































