The U.S. and UK will reportedly convene a high-level conference in London next week to build an international coalition protecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This diplomatic push comes as President Donald Trump nears a decision on launching a "massive attack" on Iran, raising immediate stakes for global energy security and market stability. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine may attend the talks, according to Axios, citing a White House official. The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Energy Corridor at Stake as War Enters Fifth Month

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global energy corridor. Reopening it fully is central to any U.S. exit strategy from the conflict with Iran and to stabilizing volatile energy markets. The war is now in its fifth month, with escalations extending beyond the U.S., Iran, and Israel. Middle Eastern countries hosting American military bases have also faced repeated attacks.

Key Developments

Iran Holds Firm as Mediators Push for Off-Ramp

On Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran "will not submit to U.S. bullying," according to Axios. Oman resumed mediation talks in Tehran the same day. Araghchi also discussed proposals with his Pakistani counterpart, a mediator in U.S.-Iran talks, saying "the problem is America's approach."

On Thursday, President Donald Trump said he is nearing a decision on launching a "massive attack" on Iran, while Pakistan is reportedly working to revive stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran. In May, the UK deployed HMS Dragon, a Type-45 destroyer, to the Middle East as part of the broader coalition effort to provide naval escorts through the Strait of Hormuz.

President Donald Trump announced the reinstatement of the 'Iran Blockade' and called for a 20% fee from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz to provide 'safety and security.' Trump declared the United States as 'The Guardian of the Hormuz Strait' and stated that, as a matter of fairness, the nation must be reimbursed for 'any and all costs necessary to do the job.' A report by Semafor indicates that the White House says the plan has been pursued for months. While the specific process for charging fees has not been detailed, Trump indicated that the formation and process would begin immediately.

Strait of Hormuz: Ground Reality vs. Official Position

Contradicting U.S. assertions that the Strait of Hormuz remains open, a shipping insider has told CBS that nothing is currently passing through the critical waterway. This on-the-ground account stands in stark contrast to official American claims about freedom of navigation in the region. Ship-tracking data had already confirmed that no vessels passed through the strait in the last day, reinforcing the shipping insider's account and underscoring the growing risk environment for commercial and energy shipping.

Incident in the Strait of Hormuz

A vessel navigating the Strait of Hormuz was hit by an unknown projectile in the latest development to roil one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. All crew members aboard the stricken ship are reported to be safe, even as the incident highlights the deteriorating security conditions along this vital global shipping lane.

International Reaction

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded to the announcement on X, stating that 'POTUS is absolutely right' but asserting that Iran 'has always been the Guardian of the Strait.' Araghchi commented that the 20% fee proposed by Trump is 'too much' and emphasized that Iran 'will be fair.'

Prediction Market Outlook

Polymarket, a prediction platform based on the Polygon network, is currently hosting a contract titled 'US charges Hormuz fees by…?' where users wager using the USDC stablecoin. Over $33,000 has been bet on the contract so far. Despite Trump's call for a fee, the prediction market indicates it is unlikely the U.S. will impose such a levy. The probability estimates across key deadlines are as follows:

Oil Market Impact

The escalating geopolitical tensions have driven up global oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil surged by 2.11% to reach $79.79, while Brent Crude climbed approximately 1.94% to $84.92.