President Donald Trump stated Wednesday that US stock markets will continue to move higher, asserting they are "hitting new records every day" despite the ongoing military conflict with Iran and resulting oil price volatility.

Market Hits New Records Every Day

During a White House press briefing, Trump addressed renewed US strikes on Iranian targets and Brent crude climbing back to $95 a barrel. He noted that he had predicted over a year ago that confronting Iran’s nuclear program would carry an economic cost, expecting oil prices to rise and the stock market to fall.

Contrary to those predictions, he said the market has kept hitting new records. He added that the market would likely be even higher had it not been affected by the conflict at all.

"Believe it or not, the stock market will go up," he said.

Strait Of Hormuz Control

Trump claimed the US maintains "very strong control" of the Strait of Hormuz, moving "millions of barrels of oil" daily "for the most part... without trouble," while occasionally shooting down drones. He described the latest strikes as targeting Iranian efforts to rebuild radar systems and a missile system designed to drop naval mines.

He characterized the US ability to intercept nearly all incoming projectiles as "an amazing science." At the time of writing, Brent crude oil fell 0.35% to 95.294, while Crude oil fell 0.08% to 90.940.

Election Context

Trump stated his position on Iran is not shaped by political considerations ahead of the upcoming midterm elections. "I’m not affected by the election," he said. "Number one, I’m not running, but my party’s running, and I’m going to help my party, but I think my party respects the fact that we’re not allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon."

Prediction markets on Polymarket put a 51% chance on Democrats sweeping both the House and Senate in November, up from just 26% a year ago.

Stock Markets performance

Major US indexes closed higher Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.56% to 53,061.95, the S&P 500 gained 0.46% to 7,666.60, and the Nasdaq increased 0.23% to 26,217.82.

So far this year, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 11.78% and 12.83%, respectively.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between Trump's initial prediction of a market decline due to geopolitical tension and the actual YTD gains of 11.78% for the S&P 500 highlights a disconnect between expected economic costs of the Iran conflict and current equity performance. Despite Brent crude reaching $95 a barrel, major indices continued to post positive returns, suggesting investors are currently pricing in resilience or other offsetting factors rather than immediate recessionary impacts from energy volatility.

Trump stated that the Iranian regime is 'getting weaker by the day' and indicated he has 'very productive things to talk about' with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Trump's remarks on Iran and China

Trump's comments addressed two significant geopolitical fronts simultaneously. On Iran, he characterised the regime's position as one of ongoing decline, using the phrase 'getting weaker by the day' to describe its standing.

On the matter of China, Trump signalled an agenda for engagement with Xi, describing the subjects of potential discussion as 'very productive things.' The remarks suggest active diplomatic considerations across both relationships, though no specific details of the topics or timelines were disclosed.