President Donald Trump claimed the U.S. has "total control" over the Strait of Hormuz, but shipping data indicates commercial traffic remains severely constrained. Maritime traffic through the waterway fell 50% on August 31, with only five confirmed crossings.

Marine Traffic Falls

Data analytics firm Kpler reported that maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped significantly on August 31. Only five vessels crossed the waterway that day, down from 10 the previous day. Four vessels entered the Middle East Gulf and one exited, utilizing a mix of Iranian, Omani, and negotiated routes.

Among these five vessels, two were identified as shadow vessels, which use deceptive practices such as turning off transponders to bypass scrutiny. One vessel was sanctioned. This decline in traffic contrasts sharply with Trump’s assertion that approximately 30 ships transit nightly with Navy assistance. Trump previously described the strait as being in "extremely good shape" with significant oil flow.

The data emerges as the U.S. grapples with high energy costs. The national average price of gas stood at $4.1436 per gallon on Thursday, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). Analysts from Kpler had earlier noted that Iran had "partially" lost control over the Strait, with ships increasingly taking the Omani route.

Additional data from maritime shipping tracker Marine Traffic on Thursday showed only a handful of ships passing through the waterway at press time. This publicly visible tracking data further contrasts with Trump’s claims about U.S. control, which he recently suggested should be renamed to the "Trump Strait."

Tensions Escalate

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have intensified following new U.S. sanctions on Iran, which Trump termed an "economic D-Day." The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) targeted IRGC positions reportedly preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also adopted a "tanker for tanker" approach, striking parked Iranian government tankers in the region.

Iran responded by striking U.S. assets in the region. Tehran also criticized Washington for strikes on the city of Kuhestak, where a missile hit a wedding ceremony, killing four people including a child and injuring more than 50 others. Vice President JD Vance and Energy Secretary Chris Wright have defended the administration's stance, with Wright reiterating the claim that 30 ships passed through the waterway.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between official statements and independent tracking data highlights a significant information gap regarding the operational status of the Strait of Hormuz. While the administration cites 30 nightly transits to demonstrate stability and control, verified maritime data shows a sharp contraction to just five crossings in a single day. This discrepancy suggests that either the definition of "transit" differs materially between sources, or that commercial activity is far more disrupted than public statements indicate.

Oman has quietly rejected Iran's proposal to impose fees on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, contradicting a claim by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that a deal had been reached, according to the NY Post.

Oman's position on the Hormuz fee proposal

Despite the IRGC's assertion that an agreement was in place, Oman distanced itself from the proposal. The report highlights a divergence between Iran's public claims and Oman's actual stance on the matter.

Significance of the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints, through which a significant share of global oil and gas shipments pass. Any fee regime on transit through the strait would have broad implications for international shipping and energy markets.