The United States has executed military strikes against Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro, according to President Trump's social media announcement. Former Indian diplomats have characterized this dramatic operation as primarily focused on oil control rather than democratic principles, with potential implications for Indian energy interests.

Military Action and Strategic Objectives

Trump announced on social media that the US "successfully carried out a large scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolas Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the Country." The US will assume interim control of Venezuela until a transition can be organized, including deploying US oil companies to the country.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that while the US will not manage Venezuela's daily affairs, it will concentrate on the country's oil sector operations.

Indian Diplomatic Assessment

Former Indian Ambassador to the US Navtej Sarna, speaking on CNBC-TV18, said President Trump is not seeking international approval for the operation. "I don't think Mr. Trump is looking for approval from anybody. He has done what he's been wanting to do for several weeks and months," Sarna stated.

Sarna described the operation as part of Trump's new interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine, explaining that "basically, in the Western Hemisphere, he will do whatever he wants." He emphasized that Trump's real interest is not democracy or human rights, but Venezuela's oil resources.

Strategic Influence and Market Impact

Former Indian Ambassador to Venezuela Deepak Bhojwani explained that Washington's main objective is regaining strategic influence lost over the past two decades. "The US is not interested in day-to-day governance. They are interested in regaining their lost influence in Venezuela," Bhojwani said.

Venezuela had moved closer to China and Russia, with China buying nearly 70.00% of its oil output. US oil majors had previously exited the country after former leader Hugo Chávez raised royalties and expropriated assets.

Oil markets have remained stable, as Venezuela's output is already factored in through OPEC. Despite having the world's largest proven oil reserves, Venezuela lacks infrastructure to sharply raise production without large investments.

Implications for Indian Energy Sector

Bhojwani noted that India could benefit if sanctions on Venezuelan oil are lifted. ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) has stakes in Venezuelan oil fields and has outstanding dues of over $500.00 million.

"OVL will definitely look at this as an opportunity," he said, noting that Indian refineries are already equipped to process Venezuela's heavy crude. However, he cautioned that US companies may receive priority access, with Americans potentially requiring joint ventures for other international players.

AI Industry Energy Connection

The Venezuela action follows earlier statements by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang emphasizing the AI industry's energy challenges. "We need more energy, we need more chips, we need better models and more models, and we need a lot more applications," Huang stated in a CNBC interview.

Access to Venezuela's oil reserves could support energy-intensive AI operations for major companies including Nvidia, Microsoft, Oracle, OpenAI, and Meta Platforms. Huang had specifically praised Trump's energy policies, stating he was "so happy that President Trump leaned into pro energy growth."

Nvidia has secured Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) as a production partner to manufacture H200 AI chips, responding to unprecedented demand from Chinese technology companies. The partnership comes as Chinese firms have submitted official orders for 2 million H200 chips designated for 2026 delivery, creating a substantial supply challenge for the semiconductor giant.

Supply and Demand Dynamics

The scale of Chinese demand significantly outpaces Nvidia's current capabilities and inventory levels. Key supply metrics highlight the production challenge:

TSMC is scheduled to begin H200 chip production in the second quarter of 2026, though the exact volume allocation for addressing the supply deficit remains undisclosed.

Manufacturing and Technical Specifications

The H200 chips will be manufactured using TSMC's advanced 4-nanometer process technology. This partnership represents a strategic move to leverage TSMC's established semiconductor fabrication capabilities to meet the substantial order volume from Chinese customers.

Nvidia has set the pricing for H200 chips at $27,000 per unit for Chinese technology companies. The first batch from current inventory is expected to be delivered before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February.

Regulatory and Market Considerations

Despite Trump lifting US export restrictions on H200 chips, China has not yet approved the import of these AI processors, creating potential regulatory uncertainty for the arrangement. An Nvidia spokesperson emphasized that licensed sales to authorized Chinese customers would not impact supply capabilities for US customers.

The spokesperson noted that China represents a highly competitive market with rapidly growing local chip suppliers, stating that blocking US exports would undercut national and economic security while benefiting foreign competition.

Strategic Context

Beyond the H200 production partnership, Nvidia continues expanding its chip portfolio through scaling up Blackwell chips and unveiling new Rubin chip lineups. The company maintains existing order obligations while navigating the complex dynamics of serving both domestic and international markets in the competitive AI chip sector.