US military planners have developed options to deploy the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) against Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear facilities. This preparation occurs as President Trump publicly rules out military action before the November 3 midterm elections.

The strike scenarios, reported by CNN, contemplate using the "mother of all bombs" to target sites including Pickaxe Mountain. Officials remain uncertain whether the GPS-guided weapon can penetrate granite and underground defenses. The bomb can devastate an area comparable to roughly nine city blocks.

Timeline and political constraints

Trump stated there will be no military attacks on Iran prior to the midterm elections scheduled for November 3. This assertion contradicts earlier reports suggesting a potential resumption of bombing operations by the end of November. While Trump explicitly rules out action before the election, advisers privately question whether this position will hold.

One official noted that strikes could be launched before US forces leave the Central Command area of responsibility. The operation could be followed by a declared victory and a rapid military withdrawal.

Iran strengthens defenses

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated its forces have developed more advanced weapons and are prepared to respond to renewed aggression. Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi suggested the Trump administration might seek military action before the midterm elections to present voters with an achievement.

Satellite imagery shows Iran reinforcing nuclear facilities and border defenses with construction work intended to make sensitive sites more resistant to attacks. Meanwhile, a cargo ship carrying 2,500 containers sank after striking a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first reported sinking from a mine strike during the ongoing war.

What the numbers show

The new data introduces a specific hard deadline of November 3 for the cessation of hostilities, directly conflicting with the previous timeline of "end of November." While the earlier report suggested an imminent escalation within the month, the current statement establishes a clear political boundary tied to the domestic election schedule. However, the existence of detailed MOAB strike plans indicates that military readiness is proceeding in parallel with political statements.

Iranian media reported that Saudi Aramco's headquarters in Dhahran was evacuated following missile attacks launched from Yemen. This development escalates tensions after earlier reports of loud booms near the facility.

The evacuation news comes amidst heightened hostilities following recent Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure. Earlier, an explosion was also heard in the Sharqiya region, as reported by ISNA. These developments occur against a backdrop of direct military responses by the Saudi-led coalition and growing regional instability.

Coalition targets Houthi arsenal

The coalition stated that sites used by the Houthis supported their arsenal of drones and missiles, threatening the kingdom and ports in the Red Sea. This direct military response contrasts with earlier diplomatic overtures from Tehran, where embassies continue to operate under a 2023 China-brokered agreement restoring relations after a seven-year rupture.

Timeline of Riyadh airport attacks

The following table summarises the confirmed strikes on King Khalid International Airport prior to Monday's unconfirmed claims:

Saudi Arabia's General Authority of Civil Aviation confirmed the fatality and property damage in Terminal 4 from the second strike. Saudi air defense systems intercepted multiple missiles and a drone across the country during this period. Saudi authorities described the initial assault as a "fully-fledged war crime."

US intervention and energy sector impact

President Donald Trump indicated he was weighing U.S. participation in Saudi military operations against the Houthis. "We just found out about the recent attack. So we'll make a decision. We move very quickly," Trump said. Earlier, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly sought U.S. military assistance, but Trump initially declined direct strikes, offering intelligence support instead.

At the WPC Energy Congress, CEOs of ExxonMobil Holdings Corp, TotalEnergies SE, Shell Plc, Chevron Corporation, and BP Plc were removed from the agenda released Monday. Despite this, Saudi Arabia continued hosting the event. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman reassured attendees that the kingdom was safe while acknowledging security risks remained. He noted it is tough to gauge how the "present uncertainty" will evolve but assured commitment to developing Saudi Arabia's energy system.

Market sentiment and broader risks

Betting crowd on Polygon-based Polymarket priced in a 13% chance that Houthi forces enter Saudi Arabia by the month-end, and a 27% chance by the end of 2026. This reflects growing market anxiety regarding Gulf stability. The instability has contributed to rising jet fuel prices, exacerbating challenges for the global airline industry already strained by the Russia-Ukraine war. Disruptions to ship-to-ship oil transfers near the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb Strait threaten regional oil flows.