Prediction markets see low odds for US-Iran nuclear deal
The United States waived sanctions on Iranian oil for 60 days to facilitate discussions on a permanent peace deal. Despite this, Polymarket bettors show low confidence, assigning only a 26% probability to a final nuclear deal by August 31. Vice President JD Vance highlighted Iran's agreement to allow IAEA inspections and oversight of unfrozen assets. WTI crude oil fell to $73.85, while Brent crude declined 0.12% to $77.43 per barrel.
*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
The United States on Monday waived sanctions on Iranian oil for 60 days as both nations work toward a permanent peace agreement during this period. This interim measure has eased some concerns regarding the short-term stability of the arrangement. However, prediction markets indicate low confidence that a final nuclear deal will be reached in the near future.
Polymarket, a Polygon-based prediction platform utilizing the USDC stablecoin, currently hosts a contract titled "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?" Over $380,000 has been wagered on this contract so far. The platform allows users to bet on the likelihood of specific geopolitical outcomes.
Bettors on Polymarket have assigned a 5% probability to a final nuclear deal occurring by July 31, a figure that has decreased by 41%. The probability increases slightly for later dates, with a 22% chance assigned to a deal by August 18, representing a 24% decline. The highest odds observed are for August 31, standing at 26%, which is still a 20% decrease from previous levels.
Vice President JD Vance on Monday described the developments as a "major milestone." He stated that Iran has agreed to allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to return to the country. Vance further noted that any Iranian assets released from sanctions by the U.S. would be subject to oversight and verification measures.
Market Odds for US-Iran Nuclear Deal
| Target Date | Probability | Change |
|---|---|---|
| July 31 | 5% | -41% |
| August 18 | 22% | -24% |
| August 31 | 26% | -20% |
In commodity markets, WTI crude oil continued to decline as discussions progressed, falling to $73.85 on Monday. Brent crude also saw a reduction, dropping 0.12% to $77.43 per barrel.
How will oil prices react if the 60-day waiver expires without a permanent agreement?
What impact will increased Iranian oil supply have on OPEC+ production decisions?
Could the low prediction market probabilities influence the negotiation strategies of either nation?
15
Access 50+ Readymade Screeners 
Use 200+ Custom Filters 
Get Full Market Insights 
