Oil nears $88 as Kuwait intercepts drones and US weighs strikes
Brent crude oil surged 1.2% to near $88 a barrel on Friday, marking a nearly 24% gain in July, as geopolitical tensions escalated following Iranian drone attacks on Kuwaiti facilities. The U.S. is reportedly considering strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, including refineries and power plants, as peace talks collapse. Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified, with vessel crossings plummeting 77% day-on-day to just five vessels, raising fears of broader supply constraints.

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Brent crude oil prices rose 1.2% to near $88 a barrel on Friday, posting a nearly 24% gain in July, as escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran disrupted global energy markets. The surge follows the interception of Iranian drone attacks by Kuwait’s armed forces on Saturday, which targeted "vital facilities" and caused material damage from falling shrapnel, according to Major General Saud Abdulaziz Al-Otaibi, spokesman for the Ministry of Defense. No injuries were reported in the attack.
The price movement reflects growing concerns over global oil supplies as President Donald Trump weighs new military actions against Iran. Axios reported that the Trump administration is considering striking energy targets in Iran within the next few days, though no final order has been issued. CBS separately reported that potential targets include oil refineries and power plants, which would mark a significant escalation in the military campaign aimed at forcing Tehran to agree to U.S. terms in ongoing ceasefire negotiations.
Geopolitical Escalation
Efforts to reach a lasting peace have stalled, with both sides accusing each other of breaching a mid-June interim ceasefire agreement. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced the first round of strikes against Iran on Wednesday, describing it as a response to attempted Iranian attacks on U.S. forces in the Middle East. Trump cast doubt on continued talks during a Cabinet meeting, stating, "We’ll be hitting them very hard," and warning that Iran would eventually say it could not take the pressure anymore.
The conflict may also involve the Israeli military for the first time in weeks, which Axios reported could trigger Iranian missile attacks on Israel. Meanwhile, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, warned that continued U.S. naval blockade and escalation would not only tighten the lock on the Strait of Hormuz but also close other strategic chokepoints.
Shipping Disruptions
Iranian efforts to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have intensified. Bloomberg reported that the Gaslog Shanghai LNG tanker, carrying a shipment from Qatar, was struck by a projectile while transiting the strait. Security consultancies Vanguard Tech and Marisks identified the vessel, while the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) had earlier alerted that a vessel was struck off the Omani coast. Another tanker reported seeing an explosion in the water nearby but sustained no damage.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude Price | Near $88/barrel | TradingView |
| July Gain | Nearly 24% | TradingView |
| Daily Price Rise | 1.2% | TradingView |
| Strait Crossings Drop | 77% day-on-day | Kpler |
| Remaining Vessels | 5 vessels | Kpler |
Strait of Hormuz crossings fell 77% day-on-day to just five vessels, with all transits concentrated through the Iranian route, according to ship-tracking firm Kpler. The U.S. has maintained its maritime blockade against Iran to prevent exports of oil and refined products. As of July 31, CENTCOM stated it had redirected 30 commercial vessels, disabled two, and boarded two to ensure compliance, while permitting nearly 30 ships to pass for humanitarian aid. Despite claims by Iran that it attacked two tankers under U.S. escort, Western maritime authorities have not confirmed the incident, and CENTCOM affirmed the strait remains open to commercial transit.
How would a targeted strike on Iranian oil refineries impact global spare capacity and the OPEC+ response strategy in Q3?
What is the projected timeline for insurance premiums and freight rates to stabilize if Strait of Hormuz transit restrictions persist beyond August?
Could the potential involvement of Israeli military assets trigger a broader regional conflict that forces major Asian importers to diversify away from Persian Gulf supplies?

























