Analyst says Trump's 20% Hormuz fee has zero chance

Brett Erickson, a risk analyst and Geopolitics expert at Obsidian Risk Advisors, has dismissed President Donald Trump's plan to impose a 20% fee on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Erickson stated on social media platform X that there is "absolutely zero chance whatsoever" of the fee being implemented, describing the proposal as a statement from a man who is "increasingly desperate" and "wildly stressed." Trump had previously announced the plan on Truth Social, declaring the U.S. as the "Guardian of the Hormuz Strait."

Dispute Over Control and Compensation

Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, responded to the fee proposal, acknowledging that whoever secures the strait should be compensated. However, he asserted that Iran is the rightful guardian of the waterway and dismissed the specific 20% rate as "too much." Trump maintained that the U.S. would act as the guardian and that the process to implement the fee would begin immediately. The diplomatic dispute occurs alongside the reinstatement of a U.S. blockade on Iranian ports and ongoing financial sanctions targeting Tehran's nuclear capabilities.

Omani Route and Safety Concerns

Erickson also criticized the Omani route through the waterway, which has been touted by the U.S. as an alternative. He stated that the U.S. "cannot protect vessels navigating the Omani Route," pointing to recent incidents where two vessels were struck in the area. The analyst argued that it is irresponsible to coerce vessels to utilize this route when it has been proven unsafe, adding that the situation puts the lives of civilians and soldiers at risk.

Military and Legal Actions

The U.S. Central Command confirmed that the blockade on Iranian ports would resume on Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET. Trump emphasized that the strait "is OPEN, and will remain OPEN, with or without Iran." In a letter to Congress on July 10, Trump stated that the war with Iran had officially resumed on July 7, triggering a fresh 60-day period under the War Powers Act. The International Maritime Organization has stated there is "no legal basis" for imposing mandatory transit tolls on an international strait, a view supported by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Parameter	Details
Proposed Hormuz Fee	20%
Blockade Resumption	Tuesday, 4 p.m. ET
Uranium Enrichment Level	60%
Uranium Stockpile	~970 pounds
Funds Moved Annually	Billions of dollars

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments, making the security dispute and potential fee structures a matter of significant concern for energy markets.

Iran's top joint military command has issued a stark warning to leaders of regional countries, declaring that any cooperation with the United States will be considered an act of war against Iran. Adding to the escalating rhetoric, Iran's Revolutionary Guards spokesperson stated that US interference in the Strait of Hormuz has seriously jeopardized the security of global oil and gas supplies. The command further cautioned that if the conflict widens, it will reach all countries in the region, placing full responsibility on the US and its allies. The deepening volatility continues to threaten one of the world's most critical corridors for global energy trade.

Hormuz Shipping Disrupted

US Central Command reported it struck approximately 90 Iranian military targets on Wednesday after Tehran attacked three commercial vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes targeted air-defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, and missile and drone storage sites along Iran's coastline. Since early May, US forces have facilitated the transit of more than 800 commercial vessels, with about 380 million barrels of crude oil passing through the corridor. However, the resurgence in military activity has slowed shipping significantly. According to maritime intelligence platform Windward, just six vessels crossed from Friday night to Saturday morning, marking the third consecutive overnight drop from a normalized range of 18–22 vessels.

Diplomatic and Legal Standoffs

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi arrived in Muscat for talks with Omani officials, with Qatari officials also participating, to discuss mechanisms for safe passage through the Strait. Iran insists it holds the legal right to regulate passage alongside Oman. The UN's International Maritime Organization (IMO) rejected Iranian claims of sovereignty over the Strait, "strongly condemning" Iran's decision to establish an entity to control traffic and urging its 176 member states not to recognize the claim. The US has demanded Iran publicly declare all channels of Hormuz open and pledge not to attack civilian vessels.

Market and Economic Risks

The breakdown of the truce poses significant risks to global energy markets. The Revolutionary Guards' warning over jeopardized oil and gas supplies has further heightened concerns among market participants. The following table summarizes key market and economic indicators:

Metric:	Details
Brent Crude (Initial Reaction):	Rose ~3% to ~$74 a barrel on tanker attack news
Brent Crude (Post-License Revocation):	Rose above $76 after US revoked Iran's oil export license
Brent Crude (As of July 10, 2026):	Eased 0.50% to $75.94 a barrel
US Crude (As of July 10, 2026):	Slipped to $71.71 a barrel
IMF Inflation Warning:	Impact could last until 2027
IMF Severe Scenario:	Global growth potentially down to 2% in 2026 and 2027

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the war's impact on inflation could persist until 2027, with a "severe scenario" involving energy shocks potentially pushing global growth down to just 2% in both 2026 and 2027.