Vice President JD Vance offered his perspective on the unique negotiation tactics employed by Iran and their approach towards the peace talks with the U.S. In an interview with conservative commentator Michael Knowles, Vance expressed his intrigue over Iran’s constant denial of ongoing peace talks while simultaneously acknowledging technical discussions with the U.S. about a peace deal. He referred to this as a "Persian negotiating tactic and a Persian rhetorical device," a strategy he recognizes as typically Iranian but said that he does not fully understand.

Vance also shed light on the current strategy of the U.S. administration regarding the issue, which he said is "underappreciated." Vance pointed out that President Donald Trump’s approach is to constantly "reshuffle the deck" to identify leverage and pressure points, and then evaluate potential areas of progress. In another interview on Tuesday with Fox News, Vance stated, "We care a lot less about what the Iranians say. We care a lot more about what they do," while discussing the positive and negative aspects of the negotiations.

Iran’s 'Bazaar Style' Diplomacy

Vance’s remarks come in the wake of Iran’s refusal to engage in direct talks with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, saying any communication will go through Qatari mediators. Notably, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described Tehran’s approach in his 2025 Persian political memoir Negotiations: the Power of Diplomacy, later translated into English, as a "bazaar style" of diplomacy, one that relies on continuous, patient, and relentless bargaining.

Araghchi wrote that successful bargaining depends on repeatedly restating the same demands with different arguments while remaining patient and persistent. He said negotiators keep presenting examples and reasoning until the other side "gets numb" and agrees. The approach, he suggested, helps Iran prolong negotiations, maintain ambiguity, resist pressure, and seek gradual concessions despite military disadvantages.

Contrasting Strategies

Aurélien Colson of ESSEC Business School told The Independent that Iran’s negotiating approach deliberately prolongs talks to expose the other side’s impatience, divisions, or bottom line. He contrasts this with Trump’s "Art of the Deal", which prioritizes speed, high-profile negotiations, and quick agreements, while Iran emphasizes patience, ambiguity, repetition, and wearing down its counterpart.

On Tuesday, Iran ruled out direct talks with senior U.S. officials, including envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, despite Washington's diplomatic push to preserve a fragile ceasefire. Iranian officials stated they would communicate only through Qatari mediators, casting uncertainty over a 60-day negotiating framework intended to address Iran's nuclear program and regional security. The development follows recent escalations where Iran reaffirmed its sovereign right to uranium enrichment under the NPT and insisted that only Iran and Oman determine the rules for the Strait of Hormuz.

Prediction Markets on Diplomatic Talks

Polymarket, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform, is currently betting on a contract titled "Next round of US-Iran peace talks by…?" Over $1.9 million has been bet on the contract so far. Bettors have placed an 11% probability on peace talks happening by July 3, down by 34%. The probability increases to 26% for July 10 and 51% for July 17, reaching its highest point at 71% on July 31. Another contract is betting on whether Iran will withdraw from the peace deal, though the probability of withdrawal is currently considered low by bettors.

Oil Prices Ease Despite Tensions

Financial markets showed mixed reactions to the diplomatic standoff. Dow futures fell 59.00 points, or 0.11%, to 52,611.00, while S&P 500 futures were little changed at 7,548.25. In commodities, WTI crude oil rose 0.78% to $70.04 per barrel, and Brent crude futures for August delivery edged lower to $72.92 per barrel. Brent marked its steepest monthly decline since March 2020, falling about 21% in June. Natural gas futures fell 0.79% to $3.249 per MMBtu, while the U.S. dollar index rose 0.11% to 101.286.

Strait of Hormuz Dispute

Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf, Iran's top negotiator, emphasized that the sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz lies with Iran and Oman, warning that vessel traffic would be governed by arrangements determined by Tehran. Iranian officials indicated they could begin imposing transit tolls after the 60-day negotiation period expires in mid-August. U.S. Vice President JD Vance rejected this possibility, stating that the situation would not end with Iran collecting tolls on ships passing through the strategic waterway, which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Amid increased hostilities, an official from the Trump administration said, "Both sides will stand down for now and vessels can move freely."

Diplomatic and Regional Developments

Qatar confirmed Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani met with the U.S. delegation. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed no meeting with the American side was scheduled. Separately, Iran announced that a committee comprising Iran, the United States, and Lebanon would oversee the end of the war in Lebanon. Iran has exported more than 40 million barrels of oil since lifting the blockade, with restrictions threatened on the U.S. and Israel regarding Hormuz traffic.