HDFC Bank Q3 Preview: PAT Growth Seen Up to 13% YoY, NII Likely to Rise 4-8%
HDFC Bank will announce Q3 earnings on January 17, with brokerages estimating net profit growth of 6-13% YoY (₹17,700-₹18,892 crore) and NII growth of 4.5-8% YoY (₹32,032-₹33,152 crore). While loan growth is expected to remain healthy at 11.8-13.2% YoY, NIM may decline year-on-year. Market focus will be on management commentary regarding deposit mobilisation and margin trajectory as key performance drivers.
*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
HDFC Bank , India's largest private lender, is set to announce its Q3 earnings on Saturday, January 17. Brokerage estimates suggest the bank will report net profit growth in a wide range of 6% to 13% year-on-year, with absolute figures expected between ₹17,700 crore and ₹18,892 crore according to seven leading brokerages.
Financial Performance Expectations
The lender's Net Interest Income (NII) is projected to grow at 4.5% to 8% year-on-year, with estimates ranging from ₹32,032 crore to ₹33,152 crore. While HDFC Bank is expected to face profitability headwinds on a sequential basis, NII may witness modest quarter-on-quarter growth during the October-December quarter.
Profit After Tax (PAT) Estimates
| Brokerage | PAT Estimate | YoY Growth | QoQ Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elara | ₹17,845 crore | +6.60% | -4.30% |
| Emkay | ₹18,892 crore | +13.00% | +1.30% |
| IIFL Capital | ₹17,700 crore | +6.00% | -5.00% |
| JM Financial | ₹18,638 crore | +11.40% | Flat |
| Kotak Institutional Equities | ₹17,936 crore | +7.00% | -4.00% |
| Systematix | ₹18,604 crore | +11.20% | -0.20% |
| Yes Securities | ₹18,822 crore | +12.50% | +1.00% |
Net Interest Income Projections
| Brokerage | NII Estimate | YoY Growth | QoQ Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elara Capital | ₹32,296 crore | +5.40% | +2.40% |
| Emkay | ₹32,208 crore | +5.10% | +2.10% |
| IIFL Capital | ₹32,400 crore | +6.00% | +3.00% |
| JM Financial | ₹32,032 crore | +4.50% | +1.50% |
| Kotak Institutional Equities | ₹33,152 crore | +8.00% | +5.00% |
| Systematix | ₹32,607 crore | +6.40% | +3.30% |
| Yes Securities | ₹32,218 crore | +5.10% | +2.10% |
Key Performance Metrics
The bank's loan growth is expected to remain healthy, with estimates suggesting loan book expansion between 11.8% to 13.2% year-on-year. However, Net Interest Margin (NIM) is likely to face pressure, with brokerages projecting a decline year-on-year while remaining flat quarter-on-quarter.
Other Financial Indicators
| Metric | Brokerage | Estimate | YoY Change | QoQ Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIM | IIFL Capital | 3.40% | -10 bps | Same |
| NIM | Emkay | 3.40% | -22 bps | Same |
| NIM | JM Financial | 3.30% | -15 bps | -2 bps |
| Loans | JM Financial | ₹28.15 lakh crore | +11.80% | +2.50% |
| Loans | IIFL Capital | ₹28.18 lakh crore | +12.00% | +3.00% |
| Deposits | JM Financial | ₹28.86 lakh crore | +12.60% | +3.00% |
Market Focus Areas
Investors and analysts will closely monitor management commentary around deposit mobilisation and margin trajectory, which are expected to be key drivers of the bank's performance in upcoming quarters. The Street's attention will particularly focus on how the bank navigates the challenging operating environment while maintaining its growth momentum.
Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP) estimates range from ₹26,222 crore to ₹27,990 crore, indicating growth between 6.5% to 12% year-on-year. Provisions are expected to vary significantly across brokerages, with some projecting increases while others anticipate declines compared to the previous year.
Historical Stock Returns for HDFC Bank
| 1 Day | 5 Days | 1 Month | 6 Months | 1 Year | 5 Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.76% | -1.74% | -6.89% | -5.95% | +13.26% | +26.98% |
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