XRP and Bitcoin have moved in near-perfect lockstep since peaking on Sept. 3, but an upcoming XRP Ledger amendment could provide the first major opportunity for divergence.

The tight correlation suggests macro forces are currently driving both assets, according to Bitrue Research. The firm noted that the assets have consolidated in tight ranges following a retreat triggered by strong U.S. jobs data.

What the Numbers Show

The current price action reveals a dependency on broader market sentiment rather than asset-specific fundamentals. Bitrue Research highlighted that if XRP holds above $1.43 and pushes toward $1.50 while Bitcoin remains range-bound, it would indicate the recent correlation was circumstantial. Conversely, if XRP continues to match Bitcoin move-for-move despite the amendment, the market is likely treating the token primarily as a macro-sensitive crypto asset rather than one driven by independent ledger development.

Macro Headwinds

August CPI data due on Sept. 11 adds another layer of complexity ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 15-16 meeting. Soft inflation could lift both Bitcoin and XRP, while hotter inflation could pressure both. The key signal will be relative performance: if both assets fall by similar amounts, macro factors remain in control.

Analysts previously warned that BTC and XRP are flashing a bearish "Bart Simpson pattern," suggesting August’s sharp rally could fully reverse if key support levels fail.

Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez projected that XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) could reach a technical target near $60 if it confirms a breakout from a nearly decade-long ascending triangle pattern.

Martinez identified $3.66 as the key barrier on the monthly chart. A monthly close above this level would confirm the breakout and activate the upside target, according to his analysis posted on X.

Technical Context and Price Action

XRP has never approached the $60 mark. Its all-time high remains $3.84. If the forecast materializes, it would imply a surge of 4,185.71% from current levels. At the time of writing, XRP was trading at $1.40, down 0.94% in the last 24 hours.

An ascending triangle is generally viewed as a bullish chart pattern. It suggests that price usually breaks above the horizontal resistance line, indicating the prior uptrend is likely to resume.

Mixed Indicator Signals

Technical indicators present a mixed picture for the asset:

• The Awesome Oscillator issued a "Buy" signal.
• The Bull Bear Power indicator remained "Neutral."
• The Relative Strength Index hovered just above 50, also rated "Neutral."
• The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator flashed a "Sell" rating.

Open interest in XRP futures rose by nearly 2% in a week, according to Coinglass, indicating high speculative interest.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between the bullish long-term chart pattern and the bearish short-term momentum indicator (MACD) highlights a conflict between structural support and immediate selling pressure. While the ascending triangle suggests potential for significant upside, the current trading price of $1.40 remains significantly below the $3.66 breakout threshold, requiring a substantial move to validate the analyst's thesis.