Tesla is well-positioned to scale production of its Optimus humanoid robot by leveraging years of electric vehicle manufacturing experience, artificial intelligence expertise, and an established supplier network, according to a new report. The company’s ability to utilize capabilities from its EV business, including AI chips, software, and data collection systems, forms a strong foundation for the mass production of the Optimus V3 robot. This strategic move could unlock significant long-term growth and generate billions of dollars in incremental revenue for Tesla and its supply chain partners.

Tesla Leverages EV Expertise for Humanoid Push

According to a report published Wednesday by Counterpoint Research Associate Director Ethan Qi, Tesla has already built a strong supply chain around Optimus. The report highlights that Tesla’s latest AI5 platform delivers more than 2,000 TOPS of computing power and supports a vision-based end-to-end architecture for the robot. Additionally, the integration of Full Self-Driving technology and Grok AI is expected to assist the robot in understanding and interacting with complex environments.

Chinese Suppliers Expand Capacity

The report notes that more than a dozen Chinese companies have been certified as Tier 1 or Tier 2 suppliers for Optimus V3. Several of these partners already have longstanding relationships with Tesla through its EV business. Counterpoint expects Tesla to sign long-term agreements with major suppliers and encourage capacity expansion in China and overseas to support future production targets.

Cost and Production Projections

The manufacturing cost for Optimus V3 is projected to exceed $60,000 per unit in the second half of 2026 when production remains below 10,000 units. A significant portion of the cost is attributed to the newly designed 22-degree-of-freedom dexterous hands, which account for nearly 20% of the robot’s bill-of-materials cost.

Production Ramp Could Mirror Tesla’s EV Success

Counterpoint believes Tesla’s experience in scaling electric vehicle production could help accelerate Optimus manufacturing. The firm noted that Tesla took years to grow EV deliveries from early production to more than 100,000 vehicles annually. The report suggests that Optimus could reach the 100,000-unit milestone much faster than Tesla’s early EV programs, potentially becoming a major revenue driver.

Elon Musk said Tesla Inc.'s upcoming AI6 chip could set a record for "usable intelligence" produced from each semiconductor wafer, highlighting the company's effort to pair raw computing power with manufacturing efficiency. Musk praised Tesla's AI chip design team on Tuesday on X, saying its engineering reviews were "so great" and calling the team "awesome." The comment points to a design strategy that values manufacturability as much as peak performance. Semiconductor yield measures how many usable chips can be produced from a wafer. By designing chips that can better tolerate defects or make more efficient use of wafer area, Tesla could extract more computing power from each production run.

AI6 Production Plans

Musk has earlier said the AI6 chip should deliver a true doubling of performance over AI5 while keeping the "same half-reticle size." The chip is expected to use Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd.'s 2-nanometer process at the company's new Taylor, Texas, fabrication plant as part of a roughly $16.5 billion supply deal. Tesla is targeting an AI6 tapeout in December 2026, with AI7 and later generations already in planning. The company has also discussed an AI6.5 version that would use Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.'s 2-nanometer technology at its Arizona facility.

Terafab Aims To Reduce Outside Reliance

The chip plans sit inside Musk's broader semiconductor push. The company's proposed Terafab project would involve Tesla, SpaceX, xAI and Intel Corp. in a vertically integrated chip manufacturing complex designed to reduce reliance on outside foundries. Musk has said current global semiconductor output can meet only a small fraction of the computing his companies expect to need. At full scale, Terafab aims to produce 1 terawatt of AI compute capacity a year. However, for now, Tesla remains dependent on partners such as Samsung and TSMC.