Flow Traders Q3FY26 Results: NTI to fall on lower ETF volumes
- Net trading income expected to be significantly lower QoQ due to reduced volatility and volumes
- VIX decreased by 13% quarter-to-date, impacting traditional ETF market making
- APAC ETF volumes up 21% QoQ, with China specifically up 22%
- Tokenized RWA market size grew to ~$39bn from ~$32bn in Q2FY26
- Fixed operating expenses remain within €235-245 million guidance
*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Flow Traders Ltd. (Euronext: FLOW) expects significantly lower net trading income (NTI) in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 compared to the previous quarter. The Amsterdam-based liquidity provider cited decreased market trading volumes and materially reduced volatility as the primary drivers for the anticipated decline.
The company published its pre-close call script on September 24, 2026, ahead of its official results release scheduled for October 29, 2026. While fixed operating expenses remain within the guidance range of €235-245 million, the drop in NTI signals a challenging quarter for traditional ETF market making activities.
Regional volume divergence
ETF volumes decreased across most regions quarter-on-quarter, with the exception of the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. The On and Off Exchange Value Traded data highlights a stark contrast between regional performances.
| Region | Volume Change vs Q2FY26 | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| EMEA | Down 10% | Lower overall activity |
| US | Down 2% | Slightly lower volumes |
| APAC | Up 21% | Strong growth trajectory |
| China | Up 22% | Reinforces APAC strength |
In EMEA, the quarter-to-date value traded fell 10% compared to the second quarter of 2026. The US market saw a marginal 2% decline. Conversely, APAC volumes rose 21%, driven largely by a 22% increase in China’s value traded, reinforcing the region's growth momentum despite global headwinds.
Digital assets and volatility
Volatility, measured by the VIX, decreased by 13% on a quarter-to-date basis, directly impacting trading opportunities. In the digital assets segment, performance was mixed. Bitcoin and altcoin markets remained flat compared to the previous quarter but were materially down against the same period in the prior year. EMEA crypto ETF volumes rose 3% quarter-on-quarter but fell 62% year-on-year.
However, the market for tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) showed continued strength. The market size increased to approximately $39 billion in the third quarter from approximately $32 billion in the second quarter, indicating robust momentum in this specific niche.
What the numbers show
The divergence between the 13% drop in VIX and the 10% decline in EMEA volumes suggests that Flow Traders' revenue sensitivity to volatility remains high. While the 21% growth in APAC provides a partial offset, it is insufficient to counterbalance the broader decline in traditional markets. The significant year-on-year drop in crypto volumes (62%) contrasts sharply with the sequential stability in tokenized RWAs, highlighting a sector rotation within digital asset liquidity provision.
How might Flow Traders adjust its capital allocation or strategic focus in response to the sustained 21% volume growth in the APAC region?
What specific regulatory or technological developments could accelerate the migration of liquidity from traditional crypto ETFs to tokenized real-world assets?
If VIX levels remain suppressed through Q4, what alternative revenue streams or hedging strategies is Flow Traders likely to deploy to stabilize net trading income?
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