Equinor ASA has outlined a strategy to deliver more energy, growing cash flow and superior returns towards 2030, highlighted by a decision to double its 2026 share buy-back programme to USD 3 billion. The company introduced a predictable framework for annual share buy-backs ranging from USD 2–4 billion starting in 2027, while aiming to grow the quarterly cash dividend per share by more than 5% annually. This capital distribution strategy is designed to provide superior returns to shareholders amidst growing energy demand.
Strategic Priorities and Production Growth
Anders Opedal, president and CEO of Equinor ASA, stated that the company is uniquely positioned to provide reliable energy and maximise value on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). The strategy focuses on delivering focused growth in international oil and gas, building a competitive integrated power business, and creating value uplift through trading and market optimisation. Equinor targets a production growth of 150,000 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day to reach 2.3 million boe per day by 2030.
The production outlook for the NCS has been increased by 100,000 boe to 1.35 million boe per day in 2030, with expectations of 1.3 million boe per day in 2035. International oil and gas production is projected to grow by 30% to 950,000 boe per day by 2030. Additionally, power production is expected to grow to more than 20 TWh in 2030, primarily from projects currently in execution.
Financial Targets and Capital Allocation
Equinor anticipates 30% growth in cash flow from operations (CFFO) after tax from 2025 to 2030. The company plans to increase investments by USD 1 billion in 2027 towards high-return oil and gas projects. Expected organic capital expenditure (capex) is around USD 12 billion, or approximately USD 10 billion including Empire wind tax credits. For the period 2028–2030, annual capex is projected at USD 11–13 billion, with approximately 60% allocated to the NCS, 30% to international oil and gas, and 10% to power.
Free cash flow, after capex and lease payments, is forecast to exceed USD 40 billion for the period 2026–2030. The company targets a return on average capital employed (ROACE) above 15% annually from 2026 to 2030.
Capital Distribution Framework
The increased share buy-back for 2026, subject to separate board approvals, will be distributed equally across the third and fourth tranches. These tranches are expected to launch following the announcement of the company's second and third quarter 2026 results, respectively. The annual buy-back guidance from 2027 is based on oil prices of USD 60–80 per barrel and European gas prices of USD 7–11 per MMBtu, alongside balance sheet strength and macro-outlook.
| Metric |
Value |
| 2026 Share Buy-back |
USD 3 billion |
| 2027+ Annual Share Buy-back |
USD 2–4 billion |
| Annual Dividend Growth |
> 5% |
| Free Cash Flow (2026-2030) |
> USD 40 billion |
| ROACE (2026-2030) |
> 15% |
Operational Developments and Emissions
Equinor plans to develop 6 to 8 new tie-back projects annually towards 2035 to accelerate resource maturation and cut costs. The international oil and gas portfolio is expected to deliver around USD 20 billion in free cash flow after capex and lease payments from 2026 to 2030. In the power sector, cash flow from operations is expected to fund organic investments, after tax credits, from 2027 to 2030, with projects targeting nominal equity returns above 10%.
Adjusted operating income from trading and market optimisation is expected to increase by 25% to around USD 500 million per quarter by 2030. Despite increasing oil and gas production, Equinor maintains an ambition to reduce operated emissions by 50% towards 2030 and reduce net carbon intensity in the range of 15–30% by 2035.