Avista has reaffirmed its fiscal year 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance, maintaining the range of $2.52 to $2.72. The company’s outlook remains unchanged from previous statements and positions the firm slightly below the consensus analyst estimate of $2.59 for the period.

Guidance Details

The reaffirmed guidance indicates stability in Avista’s financial planning for FY2026. By keeping the range intact, management signals confidence in its operational trajectory despite market variables.

Market Context

The midpoint of Avista’s guidance range is $2.62, which exceeds the analyst estimate of $2.59. However, the lower bound of $2.52 falls short of this estimate, introducing a degree of variance in expected outcomes. Investors will monitor whether actual results align more closely with the company’s conservative floor or its optimistic ceiling.

What the Numbers Show

The decision to affirm rather than raise or lower guidance suggests a neutral stance on near-term growth drivers. With the analyst estimate sitting within the upper half of the projected range, the company faces pressure to deliver on the higher end of its expectations to meet market consensus fully.

Avista Corporation (NYSE: AVA) has submitted annual price adjustment filings to the Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC), proposing changes that would increase residential electric bills by approximately 6.5% and decrease natural gas bills by 1.5%. The filings, which have no impact on Avista’s earnings as they merely true-up costs, seek to align customer rates with actual incurred costs for power generation, purchased gas, and fixed infrastructure expenses. The proposed adjustments are driven by higher wholesale electricity costs and the expiration of previous rate credits for electric service, contrasted with lower wholesale natural gas prices observed during the recent winter season.

The regulatory filings are subject to public review and Commission approval before implementation. Avista’s Board of Directors authorized the submissions, which detail specific adjustments across six categories: Power Cost Adjustment (PCA), Fixed Cost Adjustment (FCA), Bonneville Power Administration Residential Exchange (ResEx) Program for electric services, and Purchased Gas Adjustment (PGA), Fixed Cost Adjustment (FCA), and Natural Gas Energy Efficiency Adjustment for natural gas services. The company emphasized that it does not profit from or markup the wholesale cost of natural gas, ensuring customers pay only what Avista pays, dollar for dollar.

Electric Rate Adjustments

The proposed electric rate changes would take effect on October 1, 2026. Residential customers using an average of 939 kilowatt hours per month would see their monthly bills increase from $119.52 to $127.28, an increase of $7.76 per month. This overall 5.3% revenue-based increase is primarily attributed to the Power Cost Adjustment (PCA), which reflects the difference between actual generation/purchase costs and current rates. The PCA increase is largely due to the expiration of a rate credit associated with the 2025 PCA on October 1, 2026, coupled with higher power costs and increased electricity usage during the adjustment period.

Additionally, the Fixed Cost Adjustment (FCA) for electric services proposes a $4.0 million (1.2%) increase to break the link between revenues and customer energy usage, adjusting revenues based on the number of customers rather than kilowatt-hour sales. The ResEx Program adjustment seeks a $0.3 million (0.1%) decrease to return under-rebated benefits from the federal Columbia River power system to qualifying residential and small farm customers.

Natural Gas Rate Adjustments

Natural gas rate adjustments would become effective on November 1, 2026. Residential customers using an average of 66 therms per month would see their monthly bills decrease from $59.28 to $58.38, a reduction of $0.90 per month. The net revenue impact across all natural gas schedules is a decrease of 1.8%. The primary driver is the Purchased Gas Adjustment (PGA), which requests a $2.5 million (3.0%) decrease due to lower wholesale natural gas prices compared to amounts included in current rates.

The Natural Gas Energy Efficiency Adjustment proposes a $1.4 million (1.6%) decrease, reflecting Avista’s request to set collection rates to $0.00 per therm effective November 1, 2026. This change aligns with the company’s decision to temporarily suspend its natural gas energy efficiency programs at the end of 2026 to ensure they continue delivering value under strong cost-effectiveness standards. The Natural Gas FCA proposes a $2.4 million (2.8%) increase to adjust for variations in customer usage related to weather and efficiency program savings.

What the Numbers Show

The divergent trends in electric and natural gas filings highlight distinct market dynamics: electric rates are rising due to structural cost increases and credit expirations, while natural gas rates are falling due to favorable wholesale pricing conditions. Notably, the suspension of natural gas efficiency programs removes a cost recovery mechanism, contributing to the overall decrease in natural gas revenue requirements despite the FCA increase. Customers may file written comments with the IPUC or subscribe to updates via the Commission’s website.