Gold and silver prices surged to record highs on Tuesday, January 19, with both precious metals continuing their remarkable bull run that began last year. The unprecedented rally reflects a confluence of supportive factors including strong industrial demand, tightening supply conditions, dovish monetary policy expectations, and robust safe-haven investment flows.

Record Price Levels Achieved

The latest trading session witnessed historic milestones for both metals:

These levels represent the continuation of a stellar performance trajectory that has delivered exceptional returns to investors throughout the current cycle.

Expert Price Outlook

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, maintains a strongly bullish stance on both metals. For gold, he notes that MCX Gold continues to mirror global strength, supported by a relatively stable USD/INR range of 90.90-91.00. The rising channel structure remains intact with the ₹1,43,000-₹1,45,000 zone providing solid dynamic support.

"Every dip is being bought aggressively, reinforcing the strength of the prevailing trend. A clear and sustained breakout above ₹1,45,000-₹1,45,500 can quickly open upside targets toward ₹1,48,000-₹1,50,000," Ponmudi explained.

Regarding silver, he highlighted the metal's strong breakout and high-beta outperformance characteristics. The 20-day EMA near ₹2,95,000 acts as strong dynamic support, with sustained trade above ₹3,10,000 maintaining extremely bullish momentum.

Silver Price Targets and Strategy

The silver outlook presents compelling upside potential:

HDFC Securities' ETF Recommendations

HDFC Securities, in its 'Precious Metal Outlook-2026' report, anticipates that the long-term bullish trend remains intact with potential for extraordinary returns. The brokerage recommends investors allocate up to 10% of their portfolio to precious metals, with the option to increase exposure based on individual risk appetite.

The firm has identified four specific ETFs for long-term investment:

Gold ETF Recommendations

Silver ETF Recommendations

All recommended ETFs demonstrate strong technical characteristics including higher tops and bottoms on weekly charts, positioning above key moving averages, and Weekly RSI sustaining above 50 levels.

Potential Budget Impact

HDFC Securities cautions that domestic prices could face short-term pressure if the government announces import duty reductions on gold and silver in the upcoming budget. However, this potential headwind is viewed as temporary against the backdrop of strong fundamental drivers supporting the precious metals complex.

The current market dynamics suggest continued investor interest in precious metals as both safe-haven assets and industrial commodities, with the technical setup supporting further upside momentum in the near term.

Silver has begun 2026 on a remarkable note, surging more than 35% or nearly Rs 85,000 in the first 20 days of the year. The rally has been driven by a combination of supply constraints and heightened geopolitical tensions involving the US, Iran and Greenland, prompting investors to reassess their strategies as the white metal reaches unprecedented levels.

Record-Breaking Price Movement

The silver rally gained significant momentum after MCX silver futures broke past the psychological Rs 3 lakh per kg mark. In the latest trading session, prices jumped over 2.50% or nearly Rs 8,000 to reach Rs 3,19,949 per kg. Internationally, silver has reached $94 per troy ounce, a level previously considered unthinkable by market participants.

The latest spike was triggered by renewed concerns between the US and the European Union after US President Donald Trump threatened to acquire Greenland and impose punitive tariffs on Europe.

Technical Analysis and Market Indicators

Aamir Makda, Commodity and Currency Analyst at Choice Broking, describes the current situation as a "perfect storm" of industrial scarcity and geopolitical shifts. Technical charts indicate further upward momentum potential, with immediate support positioned at the 20-DEMA level of Rs 2,55,100.

However, technical indicators are showing mixed signals:

• Bearish RSI Divergence: While prices continue climbing to new peaks, internal momentum appears to be weakening
• Open Interest Decline: OI levels have fallen to 9,850 lots in the March contract, suggesting long unwinding
• Risk-Reward Balance: Currently stands at 1:1 considering the sharp run-up over the past 13-14 months

Jigar Trivedi, Senior Analyst at Reliance Securities, suggests that some time-based consolidation may occur in the near term. However, given the prevailing political and geopolitical backdrop, the rally could extend toward the psychological level of $100 per ounce. In rupee terms, Rs 3,30,000 per kg is identified as the next key resistance level.

Investment Recommendations and Strategy

Market experts are providing varied guidance based on different investment horizons and risk profiles:

For Short-Term Traders

• Consider tactical profit-taking at current elevated levels
• Focus on strategic positioning rather than chasing record highs
• Monitor technical indicators for entry and exit points

For Long-Term Investors

Justin Khoo, Senior Market Analyst at VT Market, emphasizes that this breakout represents part of a broader structural uptrend supported by supply constraints and robust industrial demand, particularly in solar, electronics, and electric vehicles. Silver remains a compelling hedge against inflation and market uncertainty.

Market Fundamentals and Outlook

Akshat Garg, Head of Research and Product at Choice Wealth, recommends that new investors consider adding Silver ETFs as part of a diversified multi-asset portfolio. The metal's strong structural drivers remain intact, with existing investors advised to avoid exiting at current levels.

Silver's unique position stems from its dual role as both a monetary hedge and an industrial metal. Over half of its demand now comes from applications in solar power, electric vehicles, data centres and electrification. Persistent supply deficits, driven by constrained mine output and recycling capabilities, point to a tight market structure that positions silver to potentially outperform gold during growth phases while offering protection during volatile periods.

The combination of institutional flows, ETF participation, and long-term fundamentals continues to provide underlying support for the metal, with experts suggesting that discipline and conviction will matter more than short-term market timing throughout 2026.