Nifty 50 Under Bearish Pressure: Key Levels and Market Setup for January 12
Nifty 50 experienced sustained bearish pressure during the week ending January 9, with technical indicators signaling continued weakness. The index closed at 25,683, forming bearish candles below key moving averages. Put-Call ratio dropped to 0.62, its lowest since December 18, while India VIX rose 3.07% to 10.93, indicating heightened market caution and potential for further consolidation.
*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
The Nifty 50 found itself trapped in bearish momentum during the week ending January 9, with sustained selling pressure dominating the final two trading sessions. Technical indicators across multiple timeframes are signaling continued weakness, suggesting bears may maintain control in the near term.
Technical Analysis and Key Levels
The benchmark index closed at 25,683, forming a long bearish candle with minor upper and lower shadows on daily charts. This formation, accompanied by above-average volumes, indicates continuation of the downtrend amid heightened volatility. The index has fallen below both short- and medium-term moving averages and is approaching the 100-day EMA while trading below the lower Bollinger Bands.
| Technical Parameter | Current Level | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.55 | Bearish |
| MACD | Negative | Declining histogram |
| Moving Averages | Below 20-day & 50-day | Bearish crossover |
| Bollinger Bands | Below lower band | Oversold territory |
Critical support and resistance levels based on pivot points show immediate resistance at 25,870, followed by 25,945 and 26,067. On the downside, support levels are positioned at 25,628, 25,553, and 25,431. Sustaining below 25,700 could open the door for a decline towards 25,600, with further support at 25,450 and 25,300.
Bank Nifty Performance
The Bank Nifty closed at 59,252, declining 0.73% amid high volumes. The banking index also formed a red candle with minor shadows and slipped below the 20-day EMA and the midline of Bollinger Bands, indicating growing bearish strength.
| Bank Nifty Levels | Resistance | Support |
|---|---|---|
| Pivot Points | 59,605, 59,744, 59,967 | 59,158, 59,020, 58,796 |
| Fibonacci Levels | 59,795, 59,950 | 59,082, 58,712 |
The RSI dropped to 47.96, while the MACD slipped below the reference line with the histogram falling below zero, suggesting increasing bearish momentum.
Options Data Analysis
Weekly options data reveals significant positioning that could influence near-term price action. The 26,000 Call strike holds maximum open interest with 2.05 crore contracts, establishing it as a key resistance level. Maximum Call writing occurred at the 25,800 strike, adding 80.6 lakh contracts.
| Options Activity | Strike Price | Contracts (Lakh) |
|---|---|---|
| Max Call OI | 26,000 | 205.00 |
| Max Call Writing | 25,800 | +80.60 |
| Max Put OI | 25,500 | 107.00 |
| Max Put Writing | 25,400 | +42.17 |
On the Put side, maximum open interest sits at the 25,500 strike with 1.07 crore contracts, indicating strong support expectations at this level.
Market Sentiment Indicators
The Nifty Put-Call ratio declined to 0.62 on January 9, marking its lowest closing level since December 18, 2024, compared to 0.66 in the previous session. This decline below the 0.7 threshold reflects increased bearish sentiment as Call selling outpaces Put selling.
India VIX, the market's fear gauge, rose 3.07% to close at 10.93, marking its highest level since December 9. The volatility index continued its upward trajectory for the second consecutive session, moving closer to its 100-day EMA and signaling increased caution among market participants.
Institutional Activity and Stock Movements
Market breadth data reveals the extent of bearish sentiment across individual stocks. A total of 94 stocks experienced short build-up, characterized by increasing open interest alongside falling prices. Meanwhile, 66 stocks witnessed long unwinding, showing declining open interest with price drops.
Current F&O restrictions remain limited, with only two stocks retained in the ban list:
- SAIL
- Sammaan Capital
No new additions or removals were made to the F&O ban list, indicating stable derivative market positioning.
Market Outlook
Technical indicators collectively point toward sustained selling pressure and a weak short-term outlook. The combination of bearish candlestick formations, negative momentum indicators, and declining Put-Call ratios suggests bears are likely to maintain their upper hand in the immediate term. Key levels to monitor include the 25,700 resistance on any pullback attempts and 25,600 support on further declines.
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