NewsStocksMirae Asset Forecasts 8-10% Q3 Earnings Growth, Eyes Infrastructure Focus in Budget 2026Mirae Asset Forecasts 8-10% Q3 Earnings Growth, Eyes Infrastructure Focus in Budget 2026
Mirae Asset's Varun Goel forecasts 8-10% Q3 earnings growth, with auto, NBFCs, and metals delivering double-digit growth while banks, IT, and consumption show single-digit expansion. He expects Budget 2026 to maintain infrastructure spending focus on roads, railways, and green energy, along with potential tax rationalization benefits. The fund manager recommends flexi-cap funds and sees opportunities in domestic cyclical sectors including BFSI, auto, capital goods, and healthcare, while remaining cautious on export segments amid geopolitical risks.
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Varun Goel, Senior Fund Manager at Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India), has shared an optimistic outlook for the Indian equity market, forecasting 8-10% earnings growth for Q3 and expecting continued government emphasis on infrastructure development in the upcoming Budget 2026.
Q3 Earnings Expectations
Goel anticipates a balanced earnings performance across sectors for the third quarter:
| Sector Category | Expected Growth | Key Sectors |
|---|---|---|
| High Growth Sectors | Double-digit | Auto, NBFCs, Metals |
| Moderate Growth Sectors | Single-digit | Banks, IT, Consumption |
| Overall Market | 8-10% | Weighted average across sectors |
The fund manager expects the earnings recovery to gain further momentum in subsequent quarters, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions.
Budget 2026 Outlook
Mirae Asset anticipates several key focus areas in the upcoming Union Budget that could benefit the equity market:
- Infrastructure spending continuation with enhanced allocation for roads, railways, and green energy projects
- Defence sector boost through increased allocation benefiting defence companies
- Tax rationalization potential improvements in capital gains tax and Securities Transaction Tax (STT)
Goel believes these measures will provide additional impetus to the ongoing economic recovery and support corporate earnings growth.
Investment Strategy and Sector Opportunities
The fund manager recommends a diversified approach through flexi-cap funds, which he considers ideal for medium-term investment horizons. These funds offer dynamic exposure across large, mid, and small-cap segments, providing balanced diversification and growth potential.
Preferred Sectors
Mirae Asset's investment focus centers on domestic cyclical recovery stories:
| Sector | Investment Rationale |
|---|---|
| BFSI | Monetary easing benefits for small banks, SFBs, NBFCs |
| Auto & Capital Goods | Domestic economic recovery drivers |
| Healthcare | Shift from unorganized to organized in hospitals, diagnostics |
| Manufacturing | Government's Make in India strategy support |
| CRAMS | Secular growth opportunity in contract research and manufacturing |
Market Risks and Growth Drivers
While acknowledging geopolitical tensions as the primary near-term risk factor, Goel remains constructive on India's growth story. He highlights several positive developments supporting the economic rebound:
- Significant monetary easing measures
- GST and income tax cuts
- Strong agricultural production
- Recovery in central government capital expenditure spending
The fund manager notes that current market volatility is creating attractive entry points, particularly in the small-cap segment, which historically rebounds strongly when macro and sentiment headwinds ease.
Long-term Outlook
Goel expects the growth rebound to strengthen further and reflect in robust corporate earnings. He anticipates a revival in consumption leading to increased discretionary spending, while remaining cautious on export-oriented segments. The portfolio strategy emphasizes capturing domestic economic recovery stories while maintaining prudent risk management across varied market conditions.
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