HDFC Securities Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst Vinay Rajani has identified two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as attractive near-term investment opportunities, backed by strong technical indicators and positive momentum signals.

Market Overview

Indian stock market benchmarks opened the trading week on a negative note, with global risk appetite declining due to new international trade concerns. At 12:31 IST, the Sensex stood at 83,032.55, down 532.80 points or 0.64%, while the Nifty 50 was at 25,526, declining by 169.45 points or 0.67%. Market participants reacted to what analysts termed "Tariff Tantrums," which affected sentiment across global markets.

Index Outlook Analysis

Rajani's technical analysis reveals mixed signals across major indices:

The Nifty 50's underlying trend remains choppy within its broader high-low range, with bulls potentially regaining control on a decisive move above the 25,900-26,000 zone. However, a slip below 25,500 support could trigger sharp near-term weakness, potentially dragging the index to 25,150-25,100 levels.

ETF Recommendations

Mirae Asset Nifty Metal ETF (METAL)

The recommendation is supported by several technical factors:

• Breakout Pattern: The index has broken out from an upward sloping trend line on monthly charts
• Trend Structure: Higher tops and higher bottoms formation on both weekly and monthly timeframes
• Moving Averages: Positioned above all key moving averages, indicating uptrend across all time frames
• Momentum Indicators: Monthly RSI sustaining above 50, confirming sustained uptrend
• Volume Confirmation: Price rise accompanied by healthy trading volumes

Nippon India ETF Hang Seng BEES (HNGSNGBEES)

Key technical strengths include:

• Chart Pattern: Formation of higher tops and higher bottoms on weekly charts
• Trend Alignment: Positioned above all key moving averages across timeframes
• Technical Indicators: Weekly RSI sustaining above 50, MACD positioned above signal and zero line
• Moving Average Structure: Short-term moving averages placed above long-term averages
• Volume Support: Price appreciation backed by healthy trading volumes

Broader Market Assessment

Broad market indices have shown consolidation with slight recoveries from recent lows, following the previous week's sharp decline. However, midcap and smallcap segments require further upside momentum to confirm a meaningful bottom reversal pattern.

On the monthly long-term chart, the overall trend remains positive, with current consolidation and weakness viewed as potential buying opportunities near lower support levels. This perspective suggests that the current market weakness may present strategic entry points for investors with appropriate risk management.

HDFC Securities' Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst Vinay Rajani has identified two ETF investment opportunities amid ongoing market volatility, as domestic indices showed mixed performance with underlying technical concerns.

Market Performance and Technical Analysis

The Nifty 50 and Sensex recovered from initial losses, with the Nifty 50 gaining 0.30% to close at 25,758.80 and the Sensex advancing 0.11% to 83,670.46 as of 14:35 IST. Both indices had earlier declined by 0.80% during the trading session before staging a recovery.

Rajani's technical analysis reveals significant concerns for the Nifty 50, which has witnessed a fall of more than 800 points from its recent swing high of 26,373.00. The index has formed a triple top pattern near 26,300.00 and has now moved below its 20, 50, and 100-day EMAs, indicating a shift towards a positional downtrend.

Key Technical Levels and Resistance Points

The analyst identifies several critical technical levels for market participants to monitor:

• Immediate Resistance: 25,700.00 (previous swing high) for potential pullbacks
• Positional Resistance: 26,050.00-26,100.00 band
• Next Support Levels: 25,300.00, followed by 200 DEMA at 25,138.00
• Critical Level: 100 DEMA at 25,618.00 (break below could trigger further decline to 25,315.00)

The India VIX has bounced from its 52-week low of 8.72 to approximately 10.93, registering a 3.11% gain on January 9, 2026, signaling emerging caution among investors after prolonged subdued volatility.

ETF Investment Recommendations

Despite equity market concerns, Rajani has identified two precious metal ETFs showing strong technical patterns:

HDFC Gold ETF

The Gold ETF demonstrates several positive technical indicators:

• Higher tops and higher bottoms formation on weekly and monthly charts
• Positioning above all key moving averages across timeframes
• Weekly RSI sustaining above 50, indicating sustained uptrend
• MACD positioned above signal and zero line on weekly and monthly charts
• Price rise accompanied by healthy volumes

HDFC Silver ETF

The Silver ETF shows similar technical strength with additional confirmation from short-term moving averages placed above long-term moving averages, reinforcing the uptrend across multiple timeframes.

Market Outlook and Strategy

Rajani believes the Nifty 50 has likely made a short-term peak near 26,300.00 and reversed its trend downwards. The analyst recommends that traders utilize bounces to lighten long commitments, particularly given the death crossover observed in microcap and smallcap indices where 50 DEMA has crossed below 200 DEMA, indicating increased vulnerability in smaller stocks.