Amazon Prime Day to drive $21.6B GMV, says Bank of America
Bank of America projects Amazon's Prime Day will generate $21.6 billion in GMV, driven by a 5% year-over-year increase. The firm highlights the potential of Alexa for Shopping to add over $200 billion in GMV by 2035 and expects Q2 revenue to meet or exceed the high end of $199 billion guidance.

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Bank of America has maintained its Buy rating on Amazon.com Inc. with a price forecast of $310, implying approximately 30.5% upside from the stock's June 18 closing price of $237.50. The brokerage projects the upcoming Prime Day event will serve as a significant sales catalyst and a strategic platform to expand adoption of the company's AI-powered shopping assistant, Alexa for Shopping.
Prime Day Sales Outlook
The brokerage estimates Amazon's four-day Prime Day event, scheduled for June 23-26, will generate approximately $21.6 billion in gross merchandise volume (GMV), an increase of about 5% year over year. The firm anticipates first-party GMV to reach $11.6 billion, while third-party GMV is expected to total $10 billion.
| Metric | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Total GMV | $21.6 billion |
| First-party GMV | $11.6 billion |
| Third-party GMV | $10 billion |
AI Shopping Strategy
Analysts view the event as a critical opportunity to increase awareness and engagement with Alexa for Shopping. According to Amazon, the assistant generates personalized deals and product recommendations based on a customer's shopping history and preferences. It also allows users to view up to 365 days of price history, set price alerts, and enable automatic purchases when products reach target prices.
Bank of America said these features could improve customer engagement and conversion rates while protecting direct traffic to Amazon's retail platform. The brokerage estimates Alexa for Shopping could generate more than $200 billion in incremental GMV by 2035 and contribute more than $20 billion in additional retail profit over time.
Revenue Outlook
The firm expects Amazon to report second-quarter revenue at or above the high end of its $199 billion guidance, citing strong retail spending trends through May and continued momentum at Amazon Web Services. Prime Day is projected to contribute roughly $8.5 billion in incremental revenue during the quarter.
Long-Term Growth Drivers
Prime Day remains an important branding event that reinforces the value of Amazon Prime and helps the company gain online retail market share. While promotional activity could pressure margins, analysts believe Amazon can offset these costs through logistics efficiencies and stronger advertising revenue during the event.
Stock Performance
Amazon shares have gained an average of 2.2% in the week following Prime Day over the past five years. At the time of publication, Amazon.com stock was up 3.38% at $245.52.
How will the integration of generative AI into Alexa for Shopping impact user adoption rates compared to previous iterations?
What competitive responses from other retailers might emerge if Prime Day successfully captures significant market share?
Could the heavy promotional spending during Prime Day lead to margin compression in subsequent quarters?





























