The US Supreme Court is scheduled to issue rulings today, with market participants closely watching for a potential decision on Trump's controversial tariffs against US trade partners. January 9 has been designated as an "opinion day" by the court, marking the first opportunity for a ruling on the tariff dispute. The Supreme Court typically releases decisions around 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on opinion days, though the court does not announce in advance which specific rulings it intends to issue.

Trump Tariff Background and Legal Challenge

On April 2, Trump imposed sweeping tariffs ranging from 10-50% on trade partners, designating the date as "Liberation Day". These tariffs faced immediate legal challenges, with lower federal courts ruling that many exceeded presidential authority under existing laws. The courts determined that the statute used by the Trump administration does not explicitly empower a president to impose broad import duties, a power traditionally reserved for Congress under the US Constitution.

Supreme Court Deliberation

The Supreme Court will determine whether Trump can invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs without Congressional approval. Arguments presented on November 5 indicated that the 6-3 conservative majority expressed "deep concerns" over the Trump administration's use of federal law to impose these tariffs. The ruling carries significant implications for US fiscal health and trade policies, potentially representing Trump's biggest legal setback in his second presidential term.

Potential Impact on Indian Stock Market

Market experts anticipate a strong possibility of the Court ruling against Trump, which could positively impact Indian stock markets. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, stated there is "a high probability of the verdict going against Trump," noting that the market reaction would depend on specific details of the ruling.

"If the Supreme Court declares Trump tariffs illegal, there would be a rally in India since India has been the worst affected by the 50% tariffs," Vijayakumar explained. He emphasized that the significance lies in whether the Court would partially strike down the tariffs or completely declare them illegal.

Vijayakumar highlighted a key argument against the tariffs: the emergency provisions were used to address widening trade deficits that have persisted for over 15 years. "A problem which has been hanging fire for 15 years cannot be addressed using the emergency powers," he noted, calling this "a valid argument" against the tariff implementation.

Congressional Alternative and Russia Sanctions

Even if the Court rules against Trump's tariffs, relief may be temporary as the President retains the option to seek Congressional approval for the tariffs. The situation has gained additional complexity with Trump's renewed focus on Russian oil importers. On January 7, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham announced that Trump had backed a Russia sanctions bill, potentially raising US tariffs to at least 500% on countries purchasing Russian oil.

Gold and Silver Market Implications

The uncertainty surrounding the Supreme Court decision is expected to impact precious metals markets. Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered analyst, identified key technical levels for both gold and silver markets amid the ongoing volatility.

Gupta noted that increased uncertainty typically benefits gold and silver, though both metals are expected to remain volatile due to geopolitical developments, dollar movements, and bond market fluctuations. The Supreme Court's decision today could significantly influence these technical levels and overall market sentiment in the precious metals sector.

Financial markets are closely monitoring an upcoming US Supreme Court ruling on President Trump's use of emergency tariff powers, with analysts warning of potential sharp market moves depending on the outcome. The decision, which could be announced as early as Friday, centers on whether Trump can rely on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs without congressional approval.

Court Skepticism and Market Expectations

During arguments heard in November, several justices appeared skeptical of the administration's authority under the law. Online prediction markets currently imply a relatively low probability that the court will uphold the tariffs, suggesting market participants expect the emergency powers to be curtailed.

Potential Market Impact

Market participants warn that invalidating the tariffs could have wide-ranging consequences across multiple asset classes:

Investors recall that when Trump first announced the tariffs in April, equities fell sharply and bond yields initially dropped as capital flowed into safe-haven assets. While stocks have since recovered strongly, reaching record highs during 2025, the upcoming ruling is seen as a potential inflection point.

Potential Beneficiaries

Some investors believe equities could initially benefit if the tariffs are rolled back, particularly companies that have been burdened by higher import costs. A court-mandated refund of duties could significantly improve corporate cash flows, with estimates suggesting importers might receive between $150.00 billion and $200.00 billion over the coming months.

Key sectors viewed as potential beneficiaries include:

• Retailers facing higher import costs
• Consumer goods companies
• Electronics firms
• Small-cap, domestically focused companies

The Russell 2000 index ended 2025 with double-digit gains and has continued to rise this year, supported by expectations that Federal Reserve policy will help contain long-term yields and support economic growth.

Alternative Legal Mechanisms

Some market participants caution that any rally may be short-lived. They argue that even if the Supreme Court curbs Trump's use of IEEPA, the administration could quickly turn to alternative legal mechanisms to reimpose tariffs, potentially at lower rates. Economists note that several other statutory routes remain available, suggesting that the overall tariff regime may not change materially over the medium term.

Fiscal Implications

Beyond equities, the ruling could have important fiscal implications. Lower tariffs would mean reduced revenue for the US government, potentially increasing borrowing needs and placing upward pressure on bond yields. Higher yields, in turn, could weigh on stock valuations by making fixed-income assets more attractive.

Estimates from major banks suggest that annual tariff revenue could decline meaningfully if the administration shifts to alternative legal frameworks with lower rates, reviving concerns about the US fiscal outlook. A ruling that requires the government to refund past tariff collections could also lead to increased Treasury issuance.

Against this backdrop, some asset managers have already adjusted portfolios to reduce exposure to companies most vulnerable to tariff risks, focusing instead on businesses with resilient supply chains and pricing power.