The United States escalated its pressure campaign against Venezuela on Wednesday by seizing two more oil tankers, a move that threatens to cut off a critical energy lifeline for Cuba. The seizures have sparked concerns among Cuban residents about worsening power outages and deepening economic hardship on the Communist-run island.

Latest Tanker Seizures Intensify Blockade

The US military seized the Russian-flagged tanker 'Marinera' in the Atlantic near Iceland after a two-week pursuit, according to US officials. Earlier the same day, the US Coast Guard intercepted another Venezuela-linked vessel, the 'M Sophia,' northeast of South America. These actions mark the fourth such interception since Washington imposed a blockade on all sanctioned vessels entering and leaving Venezuelan waters in mid-December.

Critical Impact on Cuba's Energy Supply

For Cuba, the loss of Venezuelan oil represents a devastating blow to the island's energy security. Between January and November of last year, Venezuela supplied an average of 27,000 barrels per day to Cuba, according to shipping data and documents from Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA. This supply covered approximately 50% of Cuba's oil deficit, making it an essential component of the island's energy infrastructure.

Mounting Supply Shortages Across Cuba

The impact of the US actions is already visible across Cuba, particularly in the port city of Matanzas where oil tankers typically dock. Residents are witnessing shuttered gas stations and increasingly long fuel lines, reflecting the mounting supply shortages. The situation has raised fears that the already-frequent, hours-long power cuts experienced across the island will worsen significantly.

William Gonzalez, a Matanzas resident, expressed concern about the deteriorating situation. He noted that while Cuba previously received oil from both Venezuela and Russia, the country now faces the prospect of relying solely on Russian supplies, representing one less critical source of energy.

Limited Alternative Supply Options

While Mexico has emerged as an important supplier for Cuba, President Claudia Sheinbaum clarified on Wednesday that Mexico is not increasing its oil shipments to Cuba beyond historical levels. This statement suggests that Cuba cannot easily replace the lost Venezuelan supply through alternative sources, potentially exacerbating the energy crisis.

Cuban Response to Escalating Pressure

The aggressive US posture has generated mixed reactions among Cuban residents, ranging from anger to grim determination. Business owner Mario Valverde in Havana acknowledged the severe implications, noting that Venezuela was one of the countries that helped Cuba most with energy and fuel supplies. Meanwhile, resident Manuel Rodriguez expressed dissatisfaction with the US approach, indicating that Cubans would endure potential blackouts and resist the pressure despite the hardships.

The United States' increasingly assertive stance on Venezuela could create favorable conditions for India through lower oil prices and renewed foreign investment flows, according to market expert Rajeev Agrawal from DoorDarshi India Fund.

Venezuela Oil Impact on Global Markets

Speaking to ET Now, Agrawal highlighted that Trump's recent comments signal a clear shift in US approach toward Latin American countries, particularly Venezuela. The country holds the world's largest oil reserves, presenting significant implications for global energy markets.

"As more oil eventually comes into the market, it should put downward pressure on oil prices, which is positive for the global economy," Agrawal explained. Lower oil prices would particularly support growth across emerging markets, including India.

Aggressive US Rate Cuts Expected

Agrawal anticipates the US Federal Reserve will implement more aggressive rate cuts in 2026 than markets currently expect. The US had three rate cuts in the previous year, but changing Fed leadership could accelerate this trend.

"With a new Fed governor being appointed this year, pressure to support growth will be high. I would not be surprised if rate cuts exceed three," he stated. Lower US rates could improve global liquidity conditions and drive capital flows back toward emerging markets.

India's FPI Revival Prospects

India may regain favor with foreign portfolio investors after underperforming other emerging markets. Agrawal noted a crucial distinction in FPI composition that could work in India's favor.

"Last year, money moved out of India into other emerging markets, but those markets have rallied sharply and valuations are no longer as attractive," Agrawal observed. With continued structural reforms and improving growth visibility, India may start looking relatively more attractive again.

Strong Growth Outlook Maintained

Despite global uncertainties, tariffs, and currency fluctuations, Agrawal remains optimistic about India's medium-term growth prospects. He emphasized the distinction between nominal and real GDP performance.

"India is already clocking around 7.40% GDP growth. With ongoing reforms, I would not be surprised if India sustains 7% plus real GDP growth over the next few years," he said. The recent rupee depreciation, while affecting dollar-denominated GDP, could enhance India's competitiveness in global trade.

Corporate Earnings Recovery Expected

Corporate earnings growth, which has remained muted recently, is likely to improve as consumption strengthens and infrastructure spending gains momentum. Agrawal expects this improvement to reflect in earnings as economic activity picks up.

Regarding US investment feasibility in Venezuela's oil sector, Agrawal noted that private companies would require strong government backing, including defense and operational guarantees. With the US Navy already active in the region, such assurances appear possible, pending upcoming meetings between policymakers and oil executives.