The United States' increasingly assertive stance on Venezuela could create favorable conditions for India through lower oil prices and renewed foreign investment flows, according to market expert Rajeev Agrawal from DoorDarshi India Fund.

Venezuela Oil Impact on Global Markets

Speaking to ET Now, Agrawal highlighted that Trump's recent comments signal a clear shift in US approach toward Latin American countries, particularly Venezuela. The country holds the world's largest oil reserves, presenting significant implications for global energy markets.

"As more oil eventually comes into the market, it should put downward pressure on oil prices, which is positive for the global economy," Agrawal explained. Lower oil prices would particularly support growth across emerging markets, including India.

Aggressive US Rate Cuts Expected

Agrawal anticipates the US Federal Reserve will implement more aggressive rate cuts in 2026 than markets currently expect. The US had three rate cuts in the previous year, but changing Fed leadership could accelerate this trend.

"With a new Fed governor being appointed this year, pressure to support growth will be high. I would not be surprised if rate cuts exceed three," he stated. Lower US rates could improve global liquidity conditions and drive capital flows back toward emerging markets.

India's FPI Revival Prospects

India may regain favor with foreign portfolio investors after underperforming other emerging markets. Agrawal noted a crucial distinction in FPI composition that could work in India's favor.

"Last year, money moved out of India into other emerging markets, but those markets have rallied sharply and valuations are no longer as attractive," Agrawal observed. With continued structural reforms and improving growth visibility, India may start looking relatively more attractive again.

Strong Growth Outlook Maintained

Despite global uncertainties, tariffs, and currency fluctuations, Agrawal remains optimistic about India's medium-term growth prospects. He emphasized the distinction between nominal and real GDP performance.

"India is already clocking around 7.40% GDP growth. With ongoing reforms, I would not be surprised if India sustains 7% plus real GDP growth over the next few years," he said. The recent rupee depreciation, while affecting dollar-denominated GDP, could enhance India's competitiveness in global trade.

Corporate Earnings Recovery Expected

Corporate earnings growth, which has remained muted recently, is likely to improve as consumption strengthens and infrastructure spending gains momentum. Agrawal expects this improvement to reflect in earnings as economic activity picks up.

Regarding US investment feasibility in Venezuela's oil sector, Agrawal noted that private companies would require strong government backing, including defense and operational guarantees. With the US Navy already active in the region, such assurances appear possible, pending upcoming meetings between policymakers and oil executives.

Venezuela transported gold worth $5.20 billion to Switzerland during the early years of Nicolas Maduro's leadership, according to customs data that reveals significant precious metal exports from the South American nation's central bank reserves.

Gold Export Details

The substantial precious metal transfers occurred between 2013, when Maduro took office, and 2016, totaling 113 metric tons of gold shipped to Switzerland. Swiss broadcaster SRF reported that the gold originated from Venezuela's central bank during a period when the government was actively selling gold reserves to support its struggling economy.

Impact of International Sanctions

The gold export flow came to an abrupt halt following the implementation of international sanctions. Customs data shows zero gold exports from Venezuela to Switzerland from 2017 through 2025, coinciding with EU sanctions imposed in 2017. Switzerland subsequently adopted these EU sanctions in early 2018, targeting various Venezuelan individuals accused of human rights violations or undermining democracy.

Rhona O'Connell, a markets analyst at StoneX, explained the context: "There was big distress selling by the Venezuelan central bank from 2012 to 2016. A lot of this will have come to Switzerland. Thereafter it could have stayed with counterparties in the financial sector, or sold as small bars to Asia, or anywhere in the world."

Switzerland's Role in Global Gold Trade

Switzerland serves as one of the world's largest centers for gold refining, hosting five major refineries. According to SRF's reporting, the Venezuelan gold was likely transferred to Switzerland for:

• Processing and certification
• Refining operations
• Onward transportation to global markets

The Swiss financial system's infrastructure made it an attractive destination for Venezuela's central bank seeking to convert gold reserves into hard currency amid increasing economic pressure and US sanctions.

Recent Developments

Maduro was captured by US special forces in a raid in Caracas on January 3 and faces charges in a New York court including drug trafficking and narco-terrorism. On Monday, Switzerland ordered the freezing of assets held in the country by Maduro and 36 associates, though authorities did not provide information about the possible value or source of such funds. It remains unknown whether any connection exists between these frozen assets and the gold transferred from Venezuela's central bank during the 2013-2016 period.

O'Connell noted that the cessation of gold exports after 2016 likely occurred because "the Venezuelan central bank simply ran out of gold" following years of distress selling to support the country's economy.