Capitalmind AMC CEO Deepak Shenoy has issued a cautionary advisory to Indian businesses, urging them not to build market strategies or business assumptions around the possibility of a US-India trade deal. His warning comes amid ongoing speculation about potential trade agreements between the two nations.

Shenoy's Stark Warning on Trade Deal Expectations

Shenoy characterized the current discussions as the "17,500th time" there has been talk about a US-India trade deal, emphasizing the repetitive nature of such negotiations. While acknowledging that there remains a possibility for an agreement to materialize, he stressed that businesses should adopt a fundamentally different approach to planning.

"The deal won't happen. Period," Shenoy stated, establishing this as the default assumption that companies should work with. He advised against basing any business assumptions on the prospect of any kind of trade agreement between the two countries.

Strategic Recommendations for Indian Exporters

The Capitalmind AMC CEO outlined specific strategic guidance for Indian exporters and manufacturers:

Shenoy noted that many exporters have already implemented these strategies, either by diversifying into other international markets or by pivoting their sales focus toward the domestic Indian market.

Concerns About Agreement Reliability

Beyond the likelihood of reaching an agreement, Shenoy raised concerns about the sustainability of any potential deal. He warned that even if negotiations were to succeed, the unpredictable nature of international trade relations poses additional risks.

The CEO highlighted that "the other side keeps changing its stance every day," making any agreement unlikely to provide long-term stability. This volatility in negotiating positions further reinforces his recommendation for businesses to avoid depending on trade deal outcomes.

Current Trade Relationship Status

India remains among the few major economies that have not established a comprehensive trade deal with the United States. This situation has resulted in:

• Continued tariff overhangs on Indian exports
• Extended cautious sentiment in the market
• Ongoing uncertainty for export-dependent businesses

Shenoy concluded that given these circumstances, there is no reason for businesses to celebrate or even expect a trade deal to materialize.

Market Implications

The advisory reflects broader concerns about the reliability of international trade negotiations and their impact on business planning. Shenoy's emphasis on diversification and domestic market focus suggests a pragmatic approach to managing trade relationship uncertainties.

His recommendations align with risk management principles that advocate for reducing dependency on single markets or agreements, particularly in volatile geopolitical environments.

Indian government sources have confirmed that no formal India-US trade talks are scheduled this week, despite new US Ambassador Sergio Gor's optimistic remarks about ongoing negotiations. The clarification comes as the 39-year-old ambassador, who assumed charge on Monday, signalled progress and indicated that the next round of talks could take place soon.

Current Status of Trade Negotiations

From India's perspective, the trade discussions are largely concluded, with the country having offered what it considers the best-ever deal. However, the proposal's journey to final approval has faced delays, as detailed below:

Ambassador Gor noted that 2026 is expected to be a year of reciprocity in trade, with focus on fair trade, diversifying the partnership, and reducing the trade deficit. While the United States has expressed determination to finalise the deal, the official approval rests with Trump.

Ongoing Diplomatic Engagement

Despite the absence of formal discussions, informal engagement between Indian and US officials continues almost daily. Officials are waiting to see if the United States initiates any formal engagement in the coming days. Ambassador Gor is expected to present his credentials to the President of India soon, potentially within this week.

PAX Silica Initiative and Market Impact

Beyond trade negotiations, Ambassador Gor announced India's inclusion in the US-led PAX Silica Initiative, aimed at building a secure silicon supply chain. This strategic development had immediate market implications:

Strategic Partnership Beyond Trade

Ambassador Gor emphasised that India remains an essential partner for the United States in multiple areas:

• Counter-terrorism cooperation
• Technology collaboration
• Strategic security partnership

Analysts suggest that while the trade deal remains in limbo, continued informal communication and strategic cooperation could help maintain momentum in the India-US economic and security partnership. The focus on diversifying partnerships and building secure supply chains indicates the broader strategic nature of the bilateral relationship beyond immediate trade considerations.