Vodafone Idea is poised to deliver another challenging quarterly performance, with analysts expecting the telecom operator's December quarter results to reflect continued pressure from subscriber losses despite marginal improvements in key operational metrics. An average of five brokerages anticipates revenue growth of approximately 1% year-on-year in Q3, while net losses are projected to expand significantly to the Rs 6,700-7,000 crore range.

Revenue Performance and ARPU Trends

Brokerages broadly expect Vodafone Idea's revenue to remain largely flat on a sequential basis, with marginal improvement driven by modest ARPU gains. The company's average revenue per user is anticipated to show slight improvement during the quarter, supported by ongoing 2G-to-4G migration trends.

Kotak Equities expects revenue to rise about 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, supported by better ARPU but largely neutralized by continued subscriber churn. Motilal Oswal also anticipates flat sequential revenue, as the decline in user base offsets pricing gains.

Subscriber Base Challenges

Subscriber churn remains the most significant challenge for the company, with analysts projecting continued erosion across different estimates. The telecom operator is expected to face substantial user base decline, particularly impacting overall revenue growth potential.

Kotak Equities expects the most significant decline of about four million subscribers quarter-on-quarter, representing a sharper fall compared with the previous quarter. Centrum Broking anticipates losses of around 2 million, largely concentrated in the 2G segment.

Operational Performance Outlook

Despite topline pressures, brokerages expect modest sequential improvement in EBITDA, driven primarily by cost optimization initiatives. Operating efficiency measures are anticipated to provide some relief at the earnings level.

UBS presents the most optimistic EBITDA outlook, estimating a 3.1% quarter-on-quarter increase to around Rs 4,800 crore for Q3, supported by operating efficiencies despite weak topline growth.

Bottom-line Pressure Continues

Despite operational improvements, net losses are expected to widen further due to high interest costs and constrained revenue growth. Multiple brokerages project significant expansion in quarterly losses.

The consensus points to losses in the Rs 6,700-7,000 crore range, reflecting the ongoing financial challenges facing the telecom operator.

Key Focus Areas

Management commentary on funding plans, capital expenditure outlook, and relief on adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues will be closely monitored by investors and analysts. UBS notes that uncertainty around AGR appears to be easing, which could improve medium-term visibility. However, near-term pressures from subscriber losses and delayed tariff hikes remain key risks for the company's performance trajectory.

Vodafone Idea Limited has disclosed that the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has imposed a financial disincentive of Rs 6,00,000 on the company for quality of service violations. The penalty was levied under the Standards of Quality of Service of Access (Wireline and Wireless) and Broadband (Wireline and Wireless) Service Regulations, 2024.

TRAI Order Details

The telecommunications company received the regulatory order on 23 January 2026, which pertains to the company's failure to meet quality of service benchmarks during April 2025. The violations occurred across different service areas where Vodafone Idea failed to maintain the required quality standards.

Regulatory Compliance Disclosure

Vodafone Idea has made this disclosure pursuant to Regulation 30 of SEBI (Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements) Regulations, 2015. The company submitted the required details to both the National Stock Exchange of India Limited and BSE Limited as part of its regulatory compliance obligations.

The disclosure follows the format specified under SEBI Master Circular no. SEBI/HO/CFD/CFD/PoD2/CIR/P/0155 dated November 11, 2024, providing comprehensive details about the regulatory action taken against the company.

Company Response

Vodafone Idea has stated that it is currently reviewing the TRAI order and evaluating the next steps in this matter. The company has not provided specific details about the potential impact on its financial, operational, or other activities beyond acknowledging that it is assessing the situation.

The penalty represents a regulatory enforcement action related to service quality standards that telecommunications operators are required to maintain across their network coverage areas.