India's major telecom operators are positioned for a stable December quarter performance, with industry leaders Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea expected to report modest sequential gains in revenue and Average Revenue Per User (ARPU). The anticipated growth is primarily driven by subscriber additions, continued 2G-to-4G/5G migration, and an improving pricing environment across the sector.

Analyst Projections for Q3FY26 Performance

Leading brokerage firms have outlined positive expectations for the telecom sector's Q3 results. BoFA Securities anticipates cellular revenue growth for both major operators, with Bharti Airtel expected to achieve 2.50% quarter-on-quarter growth and Vodafone Idea projected at 2.10% sequential increase. The analysis suggests that EBITDA margins will remain sequentially flat to slightly positive during the quarter.

ICICI Securities projects steady Q3FY26 earnings supported by stable subscriber growth and premiumisation trends across the industry. The brokerage expects overall subscriber growth of 0.60% quarter-on-quarter, with significant contributions from major operators.

Subscriber Growth and Migration Trends

The subscriber addition landscape shows varied performance across operators. Reliance Jio is expected to lead with strong net additions of 7.20 million subscribers, including Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) connections. Bharti Airtel is projected to add 2.00 million subscribers quarter-on-quarter, while Vodafone Idea may experience a decline of 2.50 million subscribers.

The 2G-to-4G/5G migration continues to be a significant growth driver, with Bharti Airtel expected to add 4.50 million 4G/5G subscribers and Vodafone Idea projected to gain 1.50 million 4G subscribers during the quarter.

Revenue and ARPU Growth Expectations

ARPU improvements are expected across major operators, driven by premiumisation strategies and network upgrades. Bharti Airtel's ARPU is projected to grow 0.80% quarter-on-quarter, supporting mobile services revenue growth of 1.30%. Vodafone Idea's revenue is expected to increase by 0.70% sequentially, while Reliance Jio is anticipated to outperform with 2.10% quarter-on-quarter growth.

Morgan Stanley highlights that Bharti Airtel's ARPU growth will be supported by ongoing 2G-to-4G upgrades, prepaid-to-postpaid migration, and improved data monetisation strategies.

Infrastructure and Future Outlook

Indus Towers is expected to benefit from increased operator investments, with projected revenue growth of 1.70% quarter-on-quarter. This growth is driven by a 1.50% increase in co-locations, reflecting rising capital expenditure from Vodafone Idea as it focuses on expanding network coverage and capacity.

Analysts broadly anticipate another major tariff hike of 12-15% by the end of FY26. Centrum Institutional Research expects tariff increases to be imminent in Q1FY27, while BoFA Securities projects a headline tariff hike in the second half of calendar year 2026. The improved pricing environment, with only three major players plus BSNL, has created favorable conditions for ARPU expansion and enhanced return on capital employed across the sector.