XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) price reached $1.6963, its highest level since January last year, driven by a broader crypto market rally, significant institutional inflows, and rising derivatives leverage.

The token surged from a year-to-date low of $0.9870. This sharp appreciation coincided with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index jumping to 73, entering the greed zone and signaling strong risk-on sentiment among investors.

ETF Inflows and Whale Activity

Institutional interest in XRP has intensified, with exchange-traded funds attracting substantial capital. On Friday alone, XRP ETFs saw inflows exceeding $18 million.

Weekly inflows totaled $40 million, marking the largest weekly increase since May. Bitwise and Franklin Templeton led this activity:

Simultaneously, large holders, or "whales," have been accumulating tokens. Over 240 million XRP tokens have left exchanges since the start of summer, reducing supply available for trading.

Rising Leverage and Technical Targets

Derivatives traders are simultaneously increasing risk exposure. CryptoQuant data shows XRP’s estimated leverage ratio on Binance has climbed to around 0.213, its highest level in more than seven months. This rise follows a period where the ratio remained comparatively subdued through most of 2026, indicating returning speculative activity.

Market commentator Dark Defender identified $1.8815 as the next major test for XRP. He noted that the token rebounded 41.69% from its low to as high as $1.6995. A break above $1.88 could shift focus toward the $5.8563 Fibonacci extension, with long-term targets between $5.85 and $9.

Defender maintains that $0.9327 remains the critical Fibonacci support. Only a monthly close below this level would invalidate the bullish Elliott Wave structure, which traces back to 2023.

Technical Indicators Signal Overbought Conditions

Despite the bullish momentum, technical indicators suggest the asset is stretched. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit 85.4, its highest level since July last year.

The price broke above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), confirming short-term bullish control. However, chart patterns indicate potential reversal risks:

• The RSI level of 85.4 denotes an extremely overbought market condition.
• Candlestick patterns resembling a doji or shooting star may signal a bearish reversal.
• Support levels are identified at $1.1580, the token's highest point in July.

Higher leverage can cut both ways. Rising leverage could strengthen XRP’s rally if accompanied by higher prices and open interest. However, if XRP reverses while leverage remains elevated, forced liquidations could amplify the downside.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between rising institutional demand and falling exchange reserves highlights a shift in holding behavior. While ETF assets under management grew to over $875 million combined for Bitwise and Franklin, the removal of 240 million tokens from exchanges suggests long-term accumulation rather than speculative trading. This structural supply reduction supports the price rally despite the technically overbought RSI reading and elevated leverage ratios.

XRP network activity has intensified with active addresses rising 654.71% to 356,070 from 47,180. This surge coincides with Gemini expanding its XRP offerings in Singapore, allowing direct deposits and withdrawals over the XRP Ledger.

Network Activity Spikes

Crypto chart analyst Ali Martinez noted the sharp increase in active addresses on the XRP Ledger. He stated that such spikes typically signal stronger network participation and can coincide with increased price volatility.

Pseudonymous trader Altcoin Sherpa expects XRP’s ongoing consolidation to resolve higher. Sherpa described lower timeframes as choppy but characterized the broader consolidation as "good and healthy." The trader identified $2 as the target for XRP’s next move.

Gemini Warms Up To XRP

Gemini CEO Tyler Winklevoss announced expanded XRP functionality for users in Singapore on Monday. Local customers can now deposit and withdraw XRP directly over the XRP Ledger (XRPL). Gemini already offers Singapore customers access to more than 70 cryptocurrencies, with funding available in Singapore dollars.

In July, Gemini added XRP as cross-collateral for derivatives trading. This allows traders to use the token alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, and Gemini Dollar. In late June, Gemini and Ripple launched an XRP edition of the Gemini Credit Card, enabling users to earn rewards in XRP.

What the Numbers Show

The 654.71% surge in active addresses represents a significant shift in network utilization, moving from a base of 47,180 to 356,070. This volume expansion aligns with Gemini’s structural enhancements to XRP utility in Singapore, suggesting that increased on-chain activity may be driven by broader institutional accessibility rather than speculative retail trading alone.