Methanex Q2 EPS of $3.87 misses $3.99 estimate
Methanex's Q2 2026 results show adjusted EPS of $3.87 and revenue of $1.395 billion, both missing analyst estimates of $3.99 and $1.459 billion respectively. However, the company reported a significant turnaround with net income of $198 million and record Adjusted EBITDA of $577 million, driven by higher methanol prices amid supply disruptions.

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Methanex reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $3.87, missing the analyst consensus estimate of $3.99 by 3.01 percent. The Vancouver-based methanol producer also posted quarterly sales of $1.395 billion, falling short of the $1.459 billion revenue forecast by 4.39 percent. Despite missing these near-term estimates, the results represent a dramatic turnaround from the prior year, with earnings surging 298.97 percent compared to $0.97 per share in the same period last year. The company generated net income attributable to shareholders of $198 million, reversing a net loss of $14 million in the first quarter of 2026.
The strong financial performance was driven by higher average realized prices, which reached $529 per tonne compared to $351 per tonne in the prior quarter and $374 per tonne in the same quarter last year. This pricing strength was fueled by global methanol supply tightening due to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Methanex achieved record Adjusted EBITDA of $577 million and Adjusted net income of $300 million. However, the results were partially offset by a $115 million non-cash asset impairment charge related to the indefinite idling of the Titan plant in Trinidad and Tobago, as well as a $12 million accrual for restructuring activities at the facility.
Production and Operational Highlights
Methanex produced 2,213,000 tonnes of methanol in the second quarter of 2026, down from 2,391,000 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026. The decline was attributed to seasonal gas availability constraints in Chile, planned winter outages in New Zealand, and unplanned outages in Trinidad. North American operations remained robust, with the Geismar site in the USA producing a record 1,027,000 tonnes. Total methanol sales volume stood at 2,555,000 tonnes, including 2,151,000 tonnes of Methanex-produced methanol.
| Metric | Q2 2026 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income ($ millions) | 198 | (14) | 64 |
| Adjusted EBITDA ($ millions) | 577 | 220 | 183 |
| Revenue ($ millions) | 1,395 | 974 | 797 |
| Production (thousands of tonnes) | 2,213 | 2,391 | 1,621 |
| Avg Realized Price ($/tonne) | 529 | 351 | 374 |
Rich Sumner, President & CEO of Methanex, stated that the continuing Middle East conflict resulted in an unprecedented impact on the industry, leading to significant loss of industry supply. He noted that the company remained focused on operating assets safely and reliably while completing integration activities from its OCI acquisition. Management expects the average realized price range to be approximately $460 to $485 per tonne for July and August 2026, assuming consistent market conditions. Consequently, Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be lower in the third quarter due to the anticipated price moderation.
What the Numbers Show
The divergence between revenue growth and production volume highlights the dominant role of pricing in Methanex’s current financial trajectory. While production decreased by 7.4% quarter-over-quarter, revenue surged by 43.2% from $974 million to $1.395 billion. This indicates that the 50.7% increase in average realized price more than compensated for the drop in tonnage sold. Furthermore, the transition from a net loss to a $198 million profit, despite a $115 million impairment charge, demonstrates significant underlying operational leverage. The high Adjusted EBITDA margin reflects the cyclical peak in methanol prices, though the forward guidance suggests this margin may compress as prices normalize in the coming months.
How might the anticipated moderation in methanol prices to the $460-$485 per tonne range impact Methanex's Q3 Adjusted EBITDA margins compared to the record highs seen in Q2?
What is the long-term strategic plan for the idled Titan plant in Trinidad, and will the company seek to restart operations or divest the asset to offset the $115 million impairment charge?
Given the supply tightening caused by Middle East geopolitical conflicts, how exposed is Methanex to potential further disruptions in global logistics or raw material availability?



























