India has imported approximately €144 billion worth of Russian crude oil since the Ukraine war began in February 2022, making it the second-largest buyer of Russian oil globally after China, according to a comprehensive analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

Global Russian Oil Trade Analysis

The CREA report reveals the scale of global Russian fossil fuel trade since the invasion of Ukraine:

Russia's cumulative earnings from global fossil fuel sales since February 24, 2022, have reached approximately €1 trillion as of January 2025, with CREA noting that this "revenue continues to fund displacement, destruction, and death in Ukraine."

India's Import Volume Trends

India's Russian crude imports have experienced significant fluctuations, particularly following recent US sanctions. According to Kpler data, December imports fell sharply:

Despite the December decline, Russia maintained its position as India's largest crude supplier, though its market share dropped from about one-third in November to less than a quarter.

Impact of US Sanctions on Supply Chains

The volume contraction directly follows US sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil and their majority-owned subsidiaries, which took effect on November 21. Major Indian buyers responded by scaling back their direct purchases, with notable companies including Reliance Industries, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd temporarily halting Russian imports.

However, other refiners such as Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) continue purchasing from non-sanctioned Russian entities. Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy continues to rely heavily on Russian crude after EU sanctions curtailed alternative supplies.

Market Transformation and Pricing

India's oil import strategy underwent a dramatic transformation following the Ukraine war. Traditionally reliant on Middle Eastern oil, India increased Russian imports as sanctions and reduced European demand made barrels available at steep discounts, pushing Russia's share from under 1% to nearly 40% of total crude imports at peak levels.

Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst at Kpler, explained that "Russian crude flows into India are increasingly being rerouted through a growing web of intermediaries and logistical workarounds. While direct purchases have softened, the underlying demand signal remains intact."

Global Sanctions Landscape

The CREA report highlights that G7 countries and the EU have imposed sanctions against Russia, but several major economies including China, India, Iran, UAE, Israel, and Saudi Arabia do not support unilateral sanctions against Russia. The report notes that sanctioning countries continue to boost Russian revenues by allowing products refined from Russian crude to enter their markets.

Supply Chain Adaptation

In response to supply disruptions, Indian refiners have diversified sourcing strategies by pivoting towards alternative suppliers in the Middle East, West Africa, and the Americas. Traders including Tatneft, Redwood Global Supply, Rusexport, Morexport, and Alghaf Marine are expanding operations to assume commercial roles previously handled by sanctioned entities.

Analysts expect the recent decline to reflect short-term disruptions rather than a structural shift. As Ritolia noted, "as long as broader secondary sanctions are not enforced, India is expected to continue importing Russian barrels as economics support the case, albeit increasingly through indirect and less transparent channels."

Russian crude oil has become available for refineries, marking a significant development in the global energy market. Simultaneously, U.S. energy imports are now linked to a trade agreement, potentially reshaping the landscape of international energy trade.

Russian Crude Oil Availability

Russian crude oil is now accessible to refineries, a move that could have far-reaching implications for the global oil market. This availability might influence oil prices and supply chains worldwide.

U.S. Energy Imports and Trade Agreement

In a parallel development, U.S. energy imports have been connected to a trade agreement. This linkage suggests a strategic approach to energy policy, potentially affecting both domestic energy security and international trade relations.

Potential Implications

The simultaneous occurrence of these events could signal shifts in global energy dynamics:

• Market Competition: Russian crude availability might intensify competition in the global oil market.
• Trade Relationships: The U.S. trade agreement linkage could reshape energy partnerships and dependencies.
• Geopolitical Considerations: These developments may have broader geopolitical implications, affecting international relations and energy diplomacy.

While specific details of these developments are not provided, their potential impact on global energy markets, international trade, and geopolitical relations could be significant. As the situation evolves, it will be crucial to monitor how these changes affect global energy supply chains and international trade dynamics.