Oracle stock rebounds 5% as analysts back AI capex plan
Oracle Corp shares rebounded 5% on Monday after a 15% selloff, driven by retail buying and analyst support. While fiscal 2027 capex guidance of $90–95 billion sparked fears of negative free cash flow, analysts highlighted strong cloud revenue growth and manageable net cash outlay. The stock faces resistance at $200.50 but holds support near $179.00.

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Oracle Corp shares surged 5% on Monday as retail investors stepped in to buy the dip following the company's worst weekly performance since September 2002. The rebound comes despite market concerns over a massive capital expenditure plan, as Wall Street analysts urged investors to look past the short-term cash flow strain. The Nasdaq gained 3.13% while the S&P 500 rose 1.90%, providing a broader tailwind for the tech sector.
The cloud giant suffered a 15% drawdown last week after reporting fiscal fourth-quarter results that beat Wall Street expectations but revealed ballooning capital spending. Oracle's revenue rose 20.6% year-over-year to $19.18 billion, while non-GAAP EPS of $2.11 topped the $1.97 consensus. However, investors recoiled from the company's guidance for fiscal 2027 capex of $90–95 billion and plans to raise roughly $40 billion in debt and equity. Fiscal 2026 capex hit $55.7 billion, above guided estimates, leading to $23.7 billion in negative free cash flow.
Analyst Support and Technical Levels
Despite the market's initial panic, sell-side analysts remain bullish. BofA analyst Tal Liani reiterated a Buy rating and a $240 price forecast, pointing to 93% growth in cloud IaaS/PaaS revenue. Goldman Sachs analyst Gabriela Borges raised her target from $228 to $239, noting that prepayments and bring-your-own-cloud deals cut net cash outlay to about $70 billion, making the funding picture better than the optics suggest.
Technically, Oracle is attempting to extend a rebound off the April swing low. At $193.22, the stock is trading 4.8% above its 50-day SMA ($184.99) and 14.1% above its 100-day SMA ($169.86). However, it remains 5.5% below the 20-day SMA ($205.24) and 5.8% below the 200-day SMA ($205.84), keeping overhead supply in focus. Key resistance sits at $200.50, while support is found at $179.00.
| Metric | Reported Value | Analyst Expectation |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $19.18 billion | $19.09 billion |
| Adjusted EPS | $2.11 | $1.97 |
| Cloud Revenue | $9.91 billion | $9.97 billion |
| Cloud Infrastructure Revenue | $5.79 billion | $5.72 billion |
| Remaining Performance Obligations | $638 billion | $589.5 billion |
| Window | Average | Median | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | -1.3% | -8.6% | 40% |
| 3 months | +7.9% | +7.5% | 55% |
| 6 months | +4.5% | +10.6% | 60% |
| 12 months | +35.3% | +12.4% | 55% |
Will Oracle's aggressive $90–95 billion capital expenditure plan for fiscal 2027 trigger sustained margin pressure or successfully secure long-term market share against AWS and Azure?
How will the proposed $40 billion capital raise through debt and equity impact Oracle's credit rating and existing shareholder value in the near term?
Can Oracle maintain current cloud infrastructure growth rates of 93% if macroeconomic conditions force clients to tighten IT budgets?

































