Finnish President Alexander Stubb stated on Tuesday that Ukraine has already won the war against Russia by preserving its independence, even as he warned NATO allies that Kyiv still urgently needs more air defense support. Speaking at the NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey, Stubb argued that Ukraine’s survival after more than four years of Russia’s full-scale invasion had fundamentally altered the definition of victory in the conflict.

Stubb provided a comparative analysis to support his assertion, noting that Russian forces have advanced only 60 kilometers during the active war. In contrast, he pointed to World War II, where Russian troops advanced from Moscow to Berlin, a distance of 1,400 kilometers. "You have to ask yourself: ‘Who has won, who has lost?’ I say Ukraine has won," Stubb said.

NATO Leaders Assess Defense Capabilities

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson echoed Stubb’s sentiment, stating that Russia is certainly not winning the war and that Ukraine is achieving spectacular successes. Kristersson added that Russia is failing to manage the war according to its initial expectations. The remarks come as NATO leaders gathered in Turkey for a summit focused on Ukraine’s future, Russia’s threat to Europe, and reducing European reliance on the United States for defense.

The summit follows an agreement one year prior at The Hague, where NATO leaders committed to investing 5% of GDP annually in defense by 2035. This new target replaces the previous 2% benchmark, signaling a broader spending commitment. Stubb, whose country shares a 1,340-kilometer border with Russia, indicated that European allies have recognized Washington’s call for greater responsibility in defense matters during war, crisis, and peacetime.

Strategic Shifts and Diplomatic Efforts

The comments from the Nordic leaders reflect a significant geopolitical shift since Russia invaded Ukraine. Finland joined NATO in 2023, followed by Sweden in 2024, ending long traditions of military nonalignment. Both nations now assert that Russia’s behavior, rather than solely U.S. pressure, is driving Europe’s defense buildup.

Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict continue. President Donald Trump stated on Monday that a resolution to the war was "getting closer than people realize" following discussions with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. However, Trump did not provide specific reasons for his optimism. These comments came after a missile and drone strike on Kyiv and the surrounding region resulted in at least 28 fatalities.

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman declared on Thursday that Ukraine would win the ongoing war with Russia, asserting that technological superiority, particularly in drone warfare, outweighs manpower advantages. Ackman shared a post from a pro-Ukrainian account on X claiming that Ukrainian drones had knocked out several power substations in Crimea, Donetsk, and other disputed areas annexed by Russia. The Kyiv Independent also reported on these strikes against energy infrastructure.

"Ukraine will win the war with Russia. Better tech beats manpower in all future wars," Ackman said on X. The comments come as Ukraine increasingly employs sea, air, and long-range drones to strike targets deep within Russian-controlled territories. These attacks have impacted oil refineries, leading Russian President Vladimir Putin to acknowledge a fuel shortage in the country for the first time. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the long-range attacks as a method to degrade Russia's war resources and advance toward peace.

Despite Ackman's optimism, the conflict remains intense. Moscow launched a major drone and missile offensive on Kyiv overnight, resulting in at least 30 fatalities, according to the BBC. The city's mayor characterized the assault as the "most massive attack" on the capital to date.

Prediction markets currently reflect uncertainty regarding the war's outcome. Polymarket, a platform based on the Polygon blockchain, assigns a 12% chance that Ukraine will recapture Crimea this year. The odds of Ukraine ceding territory to Russia stand at 11%. Meanwhile, the probability of a peace agreement between the two nations in 2026 is slightly higher at 24%.

Additionally, bets on Vladimir Putin losing power this year have attracted more than $14.5 million in wagers, with the odds standing at 12%.