The real estate market in the Mumbai region and Pune has experienced a significant downturn in the third quarter of 2023, with housing sales declining by 17% compared to the same period last year. This drop in sales highlights the challenges faced by the sector amid rising property prices and changing market dynamics.

Key Highlights

• Overall sales in Mumbai region and Pune dropped to 49,542 units, down from 59,816 units in Q3 2022
• Thane witnessed the steepest decline of 28%, with sales falling to 14,877 units
• Mumbai city and Navi Mumbai saw sales declines of 8% and 6% respectively
• Pune's housing sales decreased by 16% to 17,762 units

Regional Breakdown

The impact of the sales decline was felt unevenly across different areas:

Factors Influencing the Decline

Industry experts from CREDAI-MCHI attribute this downturn to several factors:

1. Market Recalibration: The real estate market is undergoing a period of adjustment, which is reflected in the sales figures.
2. High Base Effects: The comparison with strong sales numbers from the previous year has contributed to the apparent decline.
3. Sharp Price Increases: Rising property prices have dampened demand in these regions.

Future Outlook

Despite the current slump, CREDAI-MCHI representatives remain optimistic about the sector's prospects:

• Festive Season Boost: They anticipate a recovery in demand during the upcoming festive season.
• Infrastructure Development: Ongoing projects such as Metro corridors and coastal roads are expected to support long-term growth in the real estate market.

National Context

The slowdown in Mumbai and Pune is part of a broader national trend:

• Housing sales across India's top 9 cities decreased by 4% year-on-year in Q3 2023.
• Total sales in these cities amounted to 100,370 units during this period.

While the real estate sector faces short-term challenges, industry stakeholders remain confident in its resilience and long-term growth potential. The upcoming festive season may provide a litmus test for consumer sentiment and could potentially signal a turnaround in the market.

The real estate sector in India is experiencing a significant downturn, with stocks declining for the third consecutive session. The realty index has fallen over 2% in the latest session, contributing to a cumulative loss of 3.5% over three days. This decline outpaces the benchmark Nifty index, which has seen a more modest 1.1% decrease during the same period.

Market Performance

Eight out of ten stocks in the realty index have registered losses, with some of the sector's major players taking substantial hits:

Factors Behind the Decline

Analysts attribute this downturn to several factors:

1. Profit-taking: After a period of strong gains, investors appear to be cashing in on their profits.
2. Sluggish Demand: The real estate market is facing weak demand, particularly in certain segments.
3. Strong Supply: An oversupply in the market is putting pressure on prices and sales.

Long-term Performance vs. Recent Trends

The real estate sector has shown impressive long-term growth, with the Nifty Realty index surging 325% over the past five years, significantly outperforming the Nifty's 127% gain during the same period.

However, the sector is now experiencing a reversal of fortunes:

• The Nifty Realty index is down 14.40%
• In contrast, the Nifty has advanced 5.50% during the same period

Market Segment Analysis

• Premium Segment: New launches have been limited following strong demand last year.
• Mid-tier Players: Facing muted business conditions.

Projected Sales and Transaction Values

Despite the current stock market performance, Anarock projects some interesting trends for the July-September quarter:

• Housing sales across India's top seven cities are expected to decline 9% to 97,080 units, compared to 107,060 units in the same period last year.
• Despite lower unit sales, transaction values are projected to increase 14% to ₹1.52 lakh crore, driven by higher activity in premium and luxury segments and price appreciation over the past year.

Regional Performance

The impact varies significantly across different regions:

• Mumbai Metropolitan Region faces the steepest decline at 16% to 30,260 units
• Pune: -13% to 16,620 units
• Delhi-NCR: -11% to 13,920 units
• Hyderabad: -11% to 11,305 units
• Bengaluru shows minimal impact with only 1% decline to 14,835 units
• Kolkata and Chennai buck the trend with growth of 4% to 4,130 units and 33% to 6,010 units respectively

Future Outlook

Analysts suggest that further declines in real estate stocks are possible:

• Potential for an additional 5-7% drop
• Higher trading volumes during declines indicate bearish sentiment among investors

However, it's worth noting that sales continue to exceed new supply, indicating sustained market health despite the current stock market performance.

The real estate sector's current struggles highlight the cyclical nature of the market and the impact of changing demand-supply dynamics. Investors and industry watchers will be closely monitoring how these trends develop in the coming months, particularly in light of the sector's strong performance over the past few years and the projected increase in transaction values.