JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon: US Economy Weakening, AI Boom Real but Many Companies Will Fail

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has provided insights on various economic issues, including the state of the US economy, the unexpected H-1B visa fee hike, and the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on businesses.

Economic Outlook

Dimon stated that the US economy is weakening but not at disaster levels. He expressed caution about inflation, noting conflicting economic data:

• US Consumer Prices rose 2.90% annually
• Core Inflation stood at 3.10%
• August jobs data showed only 22,000 new positions added
• Previous months' job data revised lower
• GDP expanded 3.30% year-on-year

Despite weak employment data, retail sales and consumer spending remain strong.

Inflation Concerns

Dimon expects inflation to persist due to:

• Global deficits
• World remilitarization
• Trade restructuring

He noted that reduced H-1B migration could push up US wages, contributing to elevated inflation levels.

Impact of H-1B Visa Fee Hike

• New $100,000 fee applies to new H-1B visa applicants on an application basis, not annually
• H-1B visas are typically valid for three years and extendable for another three years
• Dimon emphasized that JP Morgan moves experts globally for promotions in different markets
• The CEO expressed surprise at this unexpected development, emphasizing its significance for JP Morgan's global operations

Concerns for US Attractiveness to Global Talent

The CEO stressed that the United States needs to remain an attractive destination for global talent. Dimon cited America's immigrant heritage as a core strength, underscoring the historical importance of immigration to the country's development and success.

Stance on Free Trade

Dimon expressed support for free trade, with an exception for matters of national security. He voiced hope that leaders could work toward trade agreements, suggesting a desire for balanced and mutually beneficial international trade policies.

AI Boom and Its Impact

Dimon acknowledged that Artificial Intelligence is real and attracting significant investment. However, he warned that many companies will not survive the boom-bust cycle typical of major technological shifts. Key points include:

• JPMorgan has 2,000 people working on AI with 500 use cases
• Dimon compared the AI trend to historical booms in cars, television, and internet, where many companies went bankrupt despite the transformative nature of the technology
• Big Tech companies have spent or committed $155 billion on AI as of August, exceeding US government spending on education and social services
• JPMorgan is using various AI models, including large and small language models, both open source and closed, selecting based on what works best for the company and clients

Implications for Tech and Financial Sectors

The unexpected increase in H-1B visa fees and the AI boom could have significant implications for both the tech and financial sectors. Companies like JP Morgan, which operate on a global scale, may need to reassess their hiring, talent deployment, and technology investment strategies in light of these changes.